I believe the scenario 2 is the most realistic. The price is so inflated thought by all the speculators that heard somewhere "buy the rumor sell the news" and think they know some secret, we could fall down to the and then slowly go up from there.
Disclaimer: Missed my entry at 7$ but still bought a very small amount at inflated price. Not using a stop loss because I am prepared to lose ALL my investment. If we get in the buy zone I will buy some, but still not a vast amount. I have a Lisk wallet installed on my :D