Here we can see LTC starting the first 5-wave impulse up after completing a very long correction. As we know, LTC was the first of the major cryptos to bottom out (at approximately $100) and then quickly rally to over $200 within a matter of days. We know that reversals tend to be swift once a correction is over so this quick drive up indicates we are seeing the first impulse wave up (and the start of a new bull run) of a larger 5-wave impulse to new all time highs.
The chart shows that we have completed the first impulse wave up (wave 1) and are now smack dab in the middle of a corrective wave (wave 2). The second wave in a 5 wave impulse is a corrective wave and works against the prevailing trend. It can take the shape of a zig-zag, flat, or triangle but we normally don't see triangles in 2nd waves. This particular corrective wave seems to be an ABC zig-zag. I have also shown the sub-waves of a lesser degree within waves 1 and 2 for your reference. Note that wave 1 has 5 subwaves (12345) and wave 2 has three subwaves (ABC).
Targets are marked with green horizontal lines. The first is the .50 fib retracement of wave 1 and the second target is the .681 fib retracement of wave 1. Wave 2 CAN retrace up to 99% of wave 1, but because of the very bullish sentiment we are seeing I find that to be highly unlikely. Wave C of the ABC also tends to equal wave A in length, which makes the .50 retracement the most likely target (right around $200).
Furthermore, wave 3 is often the longest and most powerful impulse wave up (out of waves 1,3 and 5) and I want to make sure we catch the train before it leaves so I will settle for the more conservative target of the .50 retracement rather than aiming for the .681 and possibly missing the next leg up.
Feel free to ask any questions in the comments and I will also update this idea regularly.
***THIS IDEA IS JUST MY OPINION AND SHOULD NOT BE TREATED AS FINANCIAL ADVICE***
The chart shows that we have completed the first impulse wave up (wave 1) and are now smack dab in the middle of a corrective wave (wave 2). The second wave in a 5 wave impulse is a corrective wave and works against the prevailing trend. It can take the shape of a zig-zag, flat, or triangle but we normally don't see triangles in 2nd waves. This particular corrective wave seems to be an ABC zig-zag. I have also shown the sub-waves of a lesser degree within waves 1 and 2 for your reference. Note that wave 1 has 5 subwaves (12345) and wave 2 has three subwaves (ABC).
Targets are marked with green horizontal lines. The first is the .50 fib retracement of wave 1 and the second target is the .681 fib retracement of wave 1. Wave 2 CAN retrace up to 99% of wave 1, but because of the very bullish sentiment we are seeing I find that to be highly unlikely. Wave C of the ABC also tends to equal wave A in length, which makes the .50 retracement the most likely target (right around $200).
Furthermore, wave 3 is often the longest and most powerful impulse wave up (out of waves 1,3 and 5) and I want to make sure we catch the train before it leaves so I will settle for the more conservative target of the .50 retracement rather than aiming for the .681 and possibly missing the next leg up.
Feel free to ask any questions in the comments and I will also update this idea regularly.
***THIS IDEA IS JUST MY OPINION AND SHOULD NOT BE TREATED AS FINANCIAL ADVICE***
交易开始:
What was that spike to $223?! Is this it?? Are we in Wave 3? LETS GO BOYS BUY BUY BUY!!!!
NOT SO FAST!
The price spike we saw here was just the third subwave of B wave of the ABC zig-zag correction that we know is wave 2. In a zig zag, our three waves (ABC) have a 5-3-5 subwave format. Meaning wave A will have 5 subwaves, wave B will have 3, and wave C will have 5 more subwaves. That means C wave still needs to play out and we are still headed lower! The chart below has the subwaves of the ABC corrective wave (Wave 2) drawn our for your reference. You can see we are still waiting for our targets to buy in!
NOT SO FAST!
The price spike we saw here was just the third subwave of B wave of the ABC zig-zag correction that we know is wave 2. In a zig zag, our three waves (ABC) have a 5-3-5 subwave format. Meaning wave A will have 5 subwaves, wave B will have 3, and wave C will have 5 more subwaves. That means C wave still needs to play out and we are still headed lower! The chart below has the subwaves of the ABC corrective wave (Wave 2) drawn our for your reference. You can see we are still waiting for our targets to buy in!
评论:
This last leg up has gone on longer than expected. Idea is still valid but if we cross $238 I have made a mistake on the count, watching closely here.
评论:
And we fell just shy of $238 which keeps the Elliott Wave count active! However, seeing the deep retracement of Wave B is indicative that we may not be seeing a zigzag correction as a Wave 2 but rather a flat correction. Flat corrections move sideways, with wave B ending at the top of Wave A, and Wave C ending at the bottom of Wave A. Below is a chart depicting the new flat correction and the new target based on this flat correction. A second chart with subwaves will be posted shortly for your reference.
评论:
Chart with subwaves is below. Note that a flat correction has a subwave count of 3-3-5, meaning Wave A of the flat correction has 3 subwaves, Wave B also has 3 subwaves, and Wave C has 5 subwaves. The chart below depicts the subwaves of the ABC waves that are pictures in the chart above (in my last comment).
评论:
Hello Wave 3!
Although it took a while, Wave 2 has finally ended, and did not cross above the top of Wave 1 (doing this would have invalidated the wave count). Since Wave 2 was a very deep retrace (near 100% of Wave 1) we can expect Wave 4 to be a more shallow retrace. Wave 3 target was found by taking the 168% fib extension of Wave 1 (most common ending for Wave 3) and Wave 4 target is the 38% fib retracement of Wave 3.
Please note, our updated target is now closer to $203, but getting an extended 3rd or 5th wave can change the outcome. As always, our target should get more accurate as time progresses and the subwaves play out.
I will keep you posted as things progress. In the meantime sit back, relax, and enjoy this Wave 3 drop!
Although it took a while, Wave 2 has finally ended, and did not cross above the top of Wave 1 (doing this would have invalidated the wave count). Since Wave 2 was a very deep retrace (near 100% of Wave 1) we can expect Wave 4 to be a more shallow retrace. Wave 3 target was found by taking the 168% fib extension of Wave 1 (most common ending for Wave 3) and Wave 4 target is the 38% fib retracement of Wave 3.
Please note, our updated target is now closer to $203, but getting an extended 3rd or 5th wave can change the outcome. As always, our target should get more accurate as time progresses and the subwaves play out.
I will keep you posted as things progress. In the meantime sit back, relax, and enjoy this Wave 3 drop!
评论:
*ALTERNATE SCENARIO*
Hey followers, I just noticed a symmetrical triangle forming here on the 15 minute chart. It is in between the green trendlines on this chart. These tend to be continuation patterns which means a movement to the upside, and the measured move is at about $255.
If we break up, it means my Elliot Wave count was off. The alternate count is pictured below. In this alternate scenario, the first major dip after Wave 1 was in fact the end of the 2nd wave (at the 32% retracement level) and we are already in the third impulse wave up.
I will be buying in if we cross $237 as crossing that will officially invalidate the old EW count.
Hey followers, I just noticed a symmetrical triangle forming here on the 15 minute chart. It is in between the green trendlines on this chart. These tend to be continuation patterns which means a movement to the upside, and the measured move is at about $255.
If we break up, it means my Elliot Wave count was off. The alternate count is pictured below. In this alternate scenario, the first major dip after Wave 1 was in fact the end of the 2nd wave (at the 32% retracement level) and we are already in the third impulse wave up.
I will be buying in if we cross $237 as crossing that will officially invalidate the old EW count.
评论:
The ALTERNATE SCENARIO is looking more and more likely by the minute. We should see a breakout of the triangle within 1-2 hours. Below is a chart that has the alternate scenario prediction based on EW and fib ratios. The first red target is the expected end of the first run up from where we are now (end of Wave 3) after which we should expect to see a pullback (Wave 4) which will also serve as a backtest of the breakout. Following this we will have our last Wave 5 upwards which should take us to around $285 and then we should see some sort of correction.
Keep in mind, this scenario only goes into play if we break out and cross $237-$238, but as its looking more and more likely that this will be the case it is good to be prepared for other scenarios.
Keep in mind, this scenario only goes into play if we break out and cross $237-$238, but as its looking more and more likely that this will be the case it is good to be prepared for other scenarios.
评论:
Adjusted triangle trendlines. Gives us another 5-10 hours for a breakout or breakdown.
Adjusted triangle trendlines. Gives us another 5-10 hours for a breakout or breakdown.
评论:
Made some adjustments to the structure again. We need to see how these next few waves play out to correctly determine longer term targets, so for now we will stop looking ahead and take this one step at a time. The chart below shows our next target which lies between $150-$156. After hitting this target we should see a pullback, and the depth of this pullback will help us determine the next steps.
评论:
Oh and the whole reason I posted this last update- we have a breakout of the triangle on the hourly as pictured in the chart above. If it holds, we are on our way to $250 levels. If it doesn't, we will just consolidate a bit longer before breaking out.
评论:
Looks like we had a false breakout and are now seeing a breakdown.
Remember, the breakOUT that we saw earlier had a close above the hourly and yet it ended up falling back into the triangle (failed breakout). This is a perfect example of why we must wait for longer time closes (4 hour, daily) for confirmation of a breakout.
We are now seeing a breakdown from the triangle (pictured below) on the hourly, but again, we need to wait for closes to determine if the breakdown is legitimate.
Remember, the breakOUT that we saw earlier had a close above the hourly and yet it ended up falling back into the triangle (failed breakout). This is a perfect example of why we must wait for longer time closes (4 hour, daily) for confirmation of a breakout.
We are now seeing a breakdown from the triangle (pictured below) on the hourly, but again, we need to wait for closes to determine if the breakdown is legitimate.
评论:
Very brief update! We fell out of the triangle into a bigger consolidation pattern. A nice big bull pennant is forming and I still believe a breakout to the upside is on the horizon. We want to take things one step at a time so focus on the first target, but if things move too fast for me to update the idea in time I have posted a rough second target just in case.
交易开始:
Ladies and gents, we have our breakout on HUGE volume! This is it! Green targets are now in play.
评论:
Keep in mind, we do want to wait for a close for confirmation (hourly) but things look real good at the moment! Also, its possible (and quite likely) that we see a backtest of the breakout level before heading higher, so look out for that as a good entry point if you missed this initial burst up!
交易开始:
Our first target has been hit! The breakout pushed us to $251.90, just touching our first target and then pulling back a bit, as anticipated. In the chart below we can see that the first target was just touched and we are now consolidating in another triangle. It looks like LTC is gearing up to make another push higher.
评论:
Updated symmetrical triangle pictured below. Note that this is a 15 minute chart so we should see a breakout (or breakdown- unlikely) within some hours. Measured move of this bull pennant puts us above the first target, but below the second one. Max move to 270's before another pullback in my opinion.
评论:
Possible cup and handle formation, measured move would take us to $255. Remember, this last push up should be a sub-wave 5 of a larger wave 3, which means we should expect a larger wave 4 to start after this last push up. Again, max target in 270's before this wave 4 pullback, but likely we will stop in the 250's
评论:
Cup and handle was a flop and we are dropping fast. Closed below the triangle on the hourly which is not a good sign.
评论:
It looks like we have begun Wave 4 down. After just grazing our first target, we were unable to move higher, but its not over yet. This being the 4th wave down, we should still have one final 5th wave up before a much larger dip. Below is a chart showing what I believe to be the correct EW count for this last Wave 3 that just ended. It seems we had a truncated 5th wave that threw us off.
评论:
The chart I mentioned above:
交易手动结束:
Hi all, this will be my last update to this idea until I can narrow down the correct EW count. Currently I can see a couple possibilities and I am not overly confident with any one, so I will halt the idea here and possibly post a new one once I have figured it out.
My last chart for this idea is at the bottom of this post, and it shows possible reversal levels if we are headed lower. It is interesting to note that this drop put us right back into the triangle we broke out of earlier today, and we found support on the lower edge. This is a bullish sign.
PLEASE NOTE, I am still extremely bullish on LTC at this time, and there is a chance we don't get anywhere near those lower targets. For me, I plan on holding through this dip as I didn't get out early enough and the drop below could end with a reversal at any time. I still strongly believe we have another push up.
Thanks for following along, and for those interested in BTC, my latest idea is panning out quite well. Check it out!
My last chart for this idea is at the bottom of this post, and it shows possible reversal levels if we are headed lower. It is interesting to note that this drop put us right back into the triangle we broke out of earlier today, and we found support on the lower edge. This is a bullish sign.
PLEASE NOTE, I am still extremely bullish on LTC at this time, and there is a chance we don't get anywhere near those lower targets. For me, I plan on holding through this dip as I didn't get out early enough and the drop below could end with a reversal at any time. I still strongly believe we have another push up.
Thanks for following along, and for those interested in BTC, my latest idea is panning out quite well. Check it out!
Generally, Wave C tends to equal 68%, 100%, or 168% the length of Wave A. On the chart below, I have denoted the 68% and 100% lengths of Wave C with red horizontal lines. The 168% length takes us down to $170 levels but I have ruled that out (for now) because it is an unlikely scenario. As we can see, the 168% length puts us right in the middle of our two original targets (green horizontal lines) which were based upon fib retracement levels of Wave 2, HOWEVER, the 68% retracement puts us above our first green target at approximately $205 levels. This means there is a chance we bounce off this new target which would mean our wave 2 only retraces about 32% of Wave 1. Although 50% and 68% retracements for Wave 2 are most common (green horizontal lines), 32% retracements can definitely happen as well, so it is something we need to be open to. For conservative traders, setting buys around the earliest target is the safest bet.
Also, because we know we will have 5 sub-waves down with Wave C, it will get easier to estimate which of the two wave C targets we are most likely to reach as the 5 subwaves play out, so I will try to update this idea as we go.
That being said, its 4AM here and I need some sleep, so I'll likely be setting orders at the $206 level for now in case things move fast and I'm not awake to catch it!
Ill be back later!