carltonzone
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Why 95% of LTE Prognosticators Are Wrong Lately

BITFINEX:LTCUSD   莱特币/美元
I've wasted way too much time studying LTC commentaries this week, trying to get some insight to help me decide on buying and selling points with the goal of accumulating more coins, and preventing losses. The majority of what I read went against my intuition, and it cost me a little bit of money.

I noticed that about 95% of the ideas that I read this week were dead wrong. So many people predicted a massive breakout bull run, and just about an equal amount predicted a massive dive. But the market has made fools of us all, and has propagated sideways all week long.

I regret that I missed the chance to accumulate more LTC when it hit $105. I should have placed a limit order. It happened when I was sound asleep. I hoped desperately that the price would cycle and fall again, and it did not. Every move LTC has made since then has been just about impossible to predict.

When I look at the overall chart, without making any ridiculous super fancy highly technical geometric             mathematical analyses, it just looks like we are still in the downward channel . There has been talk of a double-bottom, and I don't see it. I see lower highs, and lower lows, with the same head fakes that feign bullish and then resume on the downward trend.

The only thing I see on the chart that I can trust is the lower trend line that follows the slope of growth before the November explosion. We can absolutely trust that we will at least grow along that line. There has been a lot of talk about BTC             correcting to $3500. Looking at LTC, a correction down to that bottom trend line would land somewhere around $70.

It seems to me that if we skip the completion of the oscillating pattern that is headed to $70, it's going to happen some time in the future. When BTC             broke $10,000 in December, a lot of us knew it had to correct back to $8,000. Well, of course we know it ran like it had mad cow disease all the way to $18,000, but it sure did correct back to $8,000... and more.

If I would trust my instinct and stop looking at these overly-complicated technical analyses, I will probably prosper myself. Some of the ideas are great. But if you don't understand them, and if you don't have a gut feeling that they are possible, it's best not to bet on them. The crypto market is just too wild and crazy to be completely tamed by analysis. Two or three lines is all you need, and a feel for what the public sentiment has been. Anything more than that and I start to lose my confidence, because it starts to look like voodoo/witchcraft/tarot card type of stuff.

Just my opinion. Hope you all play it safe! Much success!
I agree with everything you said. i think everyone really wants to believe that we are heading up to new highs, but if you step back from the noise and look at the basic trend lines, we are still heading down.
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carltonzone BeefStew
@BeefStew, Thanks for the comment, BeefStew. And I don't see a double bottom either. I thought a true double bottom meant an equal double bottom, or secondary bottom above the primary. The secondary bottom is a lower low, just like we've always seen. None of the movements today make any sense, and nothing is repeating on the micro scale. But like you said, when you step back and look at the big picture, there is absolutely nothing on this chart telling me that we're nearing a breakout. I'd love to see one, though! I bought in at $285, $249, and $237. I sold everything at $170, and then bought back at $150 to gain a little bit of position, which was good. I have also done a little bit of swing trading. I don't know what LTC is going to do, or when. All I can depend on is that bottom trend line, and my gut feeling. If it DOES bomb, I'm buying more on the dips. That's the safest thing to do. Accumulate. And have realistic expectations!
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