Hello fellow Gann traders. Using repeating time frames and range resistance I suspect this market hasn't finished selling off yet. The chart shows two sections which were very similar in price range and time from the 19/12/17 high. Using balancing time from the first range out it suggested a high could form around 28/01/18 (177 and 175 bars, see chart). That was confirmed and the market fell to the low on 02/02/18. If we look at the price and time action of the second section we notice that the market ran down 28 bars to the 50% pressure point. Notice the price and time action action of the potential third section is nearly identical. The market then formed a lower swing top and after a brief sideways movement fell to its low on 17/01/17. The current section (potential 3rd) has rallied strongly to form a lower swing top on 04/02/18 to then test the 50% pressure point again. The market is sitting right on my critical red vertical line which is 54 bars from the section top. This was the moment in the second section where the market started to decline. If my analysis proves correct we should see a reversal followed by a very dramatic sell off. This would cause a lot of panic if the price falls to $66 (75%). If the sell off occurs then I'm confident in my forecast for a low of $24 on 08/02/18
Of course I could be wrong and if the market does rally further then the potential double bottom could play out.
Ian - Aussie Gann Trader
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Sell order placed at $133 on stop ( breaking of previous bar downward to confirm point C swing).
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Looking good for a top on my red bar. Early days though. Next 8 hours will be telling.
Just came back to see if it worked, kind of like the concept although I think it is applied too randomly here (I am not saying I know better, but just from what I see), I think the volume and double bottom inside the 3rd block disrupted the pattern.
Also, why is there more distance between the 2nd and 3rd than the 1st and 2nd box?
Thanks.
Aussiegann
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@epitome, Minor bear retracements from a high often run out in two symmetrical sections. Both Gann and Elliott back this up. I was actually expecting the market to resume the major bull trend from the 17th of Jan. When the low came in on the 2nd Feb (a date I was watching) it lead me to believe the market had further to fall as it was too close to the 17th low. However when you start to see timeframes (eg low to low) contract or expand it's a sign that the major trend is about to change, in this case we may have seen the bottom (double) so yes you are correct in thinking the pattern was disrupted. The next date I'm watching is the 16th Feb. There could be an explosive move into this date as the market is forming a big pennant. It could go either way. I'll add an image for you.
I've added two points to watch for price resistance and support. It would take something (good or bad news) fairly significant for the market to reach either of those points on the 16th but I am expecting a decent high or low then. A more likely upward price would be at the $195 point if the market breaks above. I'm still finding my feet after a long break from Gann trading/forecasting so being a curious onlooker is wise :)
epitome
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@Aussiegann, Thanks, I am still trying to follow how you establish those points though, but otherwise very informative.
Aussiegann
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@epitome, I would love to explain more and over time I will. I'm still validating my own re-learning (and application) of Gann's work. The lines that you see are all angles of time and price in relation to the all time high and (here's the hard part) the expected low (or existing important low). It's a square of the range between two points in price. That square is then made up of pressure points (the horizontal lines) which are percentages of the range. All the angles you see are drawn from set time and price points around the square. That's a simplified explanation of how I predict time and price in advance. There is a lot more to it. Let's just see how the market reacts in the next couple of days! What I am watching is for the reaction of the market as it meets the dotted, blue and green lines above the current price.
epitome
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The volume doesn't play out though, in the previous box there was a lot of volume AFTER the collapse.
NickPadovani
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i kinda want this to happen, but not really lol
Aussiegann
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@NickPadovani, I know the feeling... if it plays out it means I'll be up all night managing the trade! At least we would know for certain that the market had bottomed out if it drops to $24!! The bulls would charge!
Also, why is there more distance between the 2nd and 3rd than the 1st and 2nd box?
Thanks.