# The bears are awake

FX:EURUSD   欧元/美元
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Close below 1.21545 would at least eliminate the alternative triangle correction

We could expect a 5 waves sequence to complete larger degree wave 1 or A
Green wave (i) ended at 1.2216, close above this level would argue a different wave count

short-term target 1: 1.1992 if green wave (iii) equals to 1.618 times the length of wave (i)
short-term target 2: 1.1827 if blue wave {iii} equals to 1.618 times the length of wave {i}
short-term target 3: end of wave 4 at 1.1554

red wave 1 circle = blue iii of green (v)
red wave 2 circle = blue iv of green (v)
but we need a swift rally breaking the end of red wave 2 circle first
there is no price evidence to confirm the above count so far

grey triangle wave {iv} or blue wave (i)-(ii)-(iii)-(iv)-(v) for {v}

another new low is still possible, no need to rush into catch the bottom

We can still argue the red (i) to (v) could be only wave (i) of {v} of 1 or A, but i think it's less likely to happen.
A solid close above the end of wave {iv} at 1.1747 would confirm the 5-waves decline sequence since February has ended

It seems we can label the sub wave v of (c) as an ending diagonal

The short-term pattern does not look bearish, maybe a complex {ii} or even wave 2 (or B) is still unfolding

or

## 相关观点

Thanks a lot...

i was thinking that like this...
http://666kb.com/i/dt5ur0vqrv63dey4w.png

Worked well.
3.3 must ended at 1.1950s ...
Now it must bu up for 3.4 to 1.2140s to 3.4...
Do you agree?

maksoy
@maksoy, if we look at the red rectangles we can see roughly 5-waves sequence. honestly i am not quite sure if we should label them as 12345 as they could also be part of an extended third wave, note each rectangular area has similar price range, if 5 waves is not the answer we may see 9 waves or even more i think as long as price still moving within the trend channel, wave iii could be further developed

Hi Sir.
Do you think that eurusd ended 3.3 wave?

maksoy
@maksoy, i would say it matches the minimum requirement of a 5 wave impulsive structure, but one of the sub wave could be further developed

maksoy

wsbza
@wsbza, Thanks...

Hi Sir.
Will you upgrade the idea?Thanks a lot.

maksoy
@maksoy, the chart I posted on DXY shows a bullish flag pattern in the lower time frame, also the green wave (iv) of EURUSD only made a shallow retracement of green wave (iii), both suggest strength in US dollar at least in the short-term. however, we probably need a new low to prove such assumption