wsbza

The bears are awake

FX:EURUSD   欧元/美元
Close below 1.21545 would at least eliminate the alternative triangle correction
评论: We may label the internal structure differently but it will not alter the overall structure
评论: Bearish count
We could expect a 5 waves sequence to complete larger degree wave 1 or A
Green wave (i) ended at 1.2216, close above this level would argue a different wave count

short-term target 1: 1.1992 if green wave (iii) equals to 1.618 times the length of wave (i)
short-term target 2: 1.1827 if blue wave {iii} equals to 1.618 times the length of wave {i}
short-term target 3: end of wave 4 at 1.1554
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评论: 2.618 Fib extension at 1.17312
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评论: the dollar index says Euro may decline further
评论: short-term bear still alive
评论: alter count: ending diagonal to complete green wave (v)
red wave 1 circle = blue iii of green (v)
red wave 2 circle = blue iv of green (v)
but we need a swift rally breaking the end of red wave 2 circle first
there is no price evidence to confirm the above count so far
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评论: expecting blue wave iv circle correction will end within 38.2% - 50% retracement level
评论: blue wave iv circle is still under way
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grey triangle wave {iv} or blue wave (i)-(ii)-(iii)-(iv)-(v) for {v}
评论: the triangle could be the best interpretation so far
评论: break above wave (c) high of 1.17908 would invalid the triangle count
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评论: short-term sell set up
评论: ready for sell again?
评论: it seems wave (e) of {iv} is still unfolding
评论: wave (e) could be a double zigzag w-x-y or a-b-c-d-e triangle
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评论: time to secure some profits
评论: possible count 1
评论: possible count 2
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another new low is still possible, no need to rush into catch the bottom
评论: EURO has broken the red wave (i) low today. it tells us this is not wave (iv) correction, which also suggests the above bullish case is under way.
We can still argue the red (i) to (v) could be only wave (i) of {v} of 1 or A, but i think it's less likely to happen.
A solid close above the end of wave {iv} at 1.1747 would confirm the 5-waves decline sequence since February has ended
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评论: expanded flat ?
评论: almost there?
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评论: a lower degree bullish flag would signal a good buy opportunity
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It seems we can label the sub wave v of (c) as an ending diagonal
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评论: bullish target towards 1.18647 where wave {c} travels the same distance as wave {a}
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评论: break below green wave {b} low at 1.14322 would activate alternative count in grey
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评论: let's review the larger structure
评论: any close below the blue wave {b} low would argue wave 2 or B finished at 1.18153 (Sept high)
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评论: the short-term key support level is the end of blue wave {b} at 1.13021, break below this would eliminate the wave and green count.
评论: time to adopt more bearish count
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评论: bearish count
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The short-term pattern does not look bearish, maybe a complex {ii} or even wave 2 (or B) is still unfolding
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评论: It is possible to count wave {ii} has finished at 1.14968 (2nd Jan), where sub wave (c) is an ending diagonal. But the correction could be more complex.
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评论: idealised selling opportunity
评论: bearish assumption
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评论: OR
评论: if wave B is a triangle, then wave C could be an ending diagonal
评论: short-term count if an ending diagonal for wave C in the making
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评论: other possible structure
评论: possible short-term count

or
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评论: wave C done
Thanks a lot...
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i was thinking that like this...
http://666kb.com/i/dt5ur0vqrv63dey4w.png
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Worked well.
3.3 must ended at 1.1950s ...
Now it must bu up for 3.4 to 1.2140s to 3.4...
Do you agree?
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wsbza maksoy
@maksoy, if we look at the red rectangles we can see roughly 5-waves sequence. honestly i am not quite sure if we should label them as 12345 as they could also be part of an extended third wave, note each rectangular area has similar price range, if 5 waves is not the answer we may see 9 waves or even more i think as long as price still moving within the trend channel, wave iii could be further developed
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Hi Sir.
Do you think that eurusd ended 3.3 wave?
Thank you for your interest.
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wsbza maksoy
@maksoy, i would say it matches the minimum requirement of a 5 wave impulsive structure, but one of the sub wave could be further developed
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wsbza maksoy
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maksoy wsbza
@wsbza, Thanks...
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Hi Sir.
Will you upgrade the idea?Thanks a lot.
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wsbza maksoy
@maksoy, the chart I posted on DXY shows a bullish flag pattern in the lower time frame, also the green wave (iv) of EURUSD only made a shallow retracement of green wave (iii), both suggest strength in US dollar at least in the short-term. however, we probably need a new low to prove such assumption
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