Viking83

NatGas: An overview

OANDA:NATGASUSD   天然气
The new low of 31/10/17 made a new probable path for NatGas to take in the coming time forward.
While this recent low may have been the low, we might risk going a bit lower.
Based on monthly supports/resistances, a visit to approx 2.589 seems quite reasonable before reversing.
Invalidated in case of lower than 2.540.

Good luck.
评论:
snapshot
评论: An ABC correction has all the requirements of completion. But this has been a very choppy and extremely long-lasting correction. We need more confirmation in order to say that the low is "in". I still find it very probable with one more leg down to either confirm or invalidate the last low. But in the markets; there are no clear rules in this regard, only what is common an probable.
评论: Increased confidence that the low is in. Target should be 3.9.
评论: There is a high likelihood of gap-fill:
snapshot
评论: Gap is @ 61.8 retrace, also the length of 1.618 of wave A
评论: GAP is filled in FUTURES here @ 50 % retrace.
snapshot
评论: Might be an OK place to try out a long
评论:
snapshot
评论: Personally I re-longed tday the position i sold at 3.1
Sadly, I thought I longed on Friday with UGAZ in $7.XX range, but seems I did not so I did pickup some today $8.50 ish. I did, however, manage to sell my DGAZ position on Friday. I'm actually hoping for one lower open to grab some more!
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@faronf, I dont like to hold over weekend due to theta
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Really appreciate your comments and analysis. Thanks.
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@metfan, You're welcome :)
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Very helpful. I was concerned that you viewed this as a longer term move.
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@metfan, Oh, no, main move I view as the big count above. But now wave 1 on smaller scale could be completed and we are in wave 2 retrace.
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If you were long, would you jump out?
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@metfan, I closed partly at 3.1 to await for retrace. I would keep a core position for upside surprises, but as I write, I see the greatest likelihood of a retrace to the 61.8 level. So risk management is the key!
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I was looking at that , last night , but it was late , must go back and look , Thanks and Good Luck .
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Any update?
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