It's going to be a short term trade. Maybe one day maybe 2-3 days... Today we tested back an important breakdown level from 2014 Q4 (highlighted by blue). After the testback and a new high price started to fall immediately and printed a key reversal on the daily chart . I take the key reversals very seriously : when price making a new high and closing below the previous day's minimum is an important sign for the traders that we have no business on the long side. At the same time the key reversal very often has a strong follow through for at least one or 2 days. As we are early in the new intermediate cycle we have to use a stop above 3,62$.
TSI crossover gave an early sign of a possible top today that's why I closed 25% of the longs. RSI also leaving overbought...
This daily cycle might have topped here and after 2-3 days of falling we will be ranging for weeks before the next leg up can start.
So after riding this terrible rally I'm going to scalp Natty with a maximum respect and a tight stop above the key reversal.
NEW SHORT ENTRY - Short term trade. Stop : 3.62$
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This one is a risky short term trade . Don't go all in because my Natty calls was working well in the past. We might get stopped out tomorrow morning. We just try to steal a little money from the Natty Bull
交易结束：到达止损
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Key reversal erased. We are out of this trade.
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Now you know why I hate stops... I think we will enter into a range before we break down into the DCL, so I'M planning to reenter very soon near to the tops. Maybe this week maybe next.
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It seems we had a half cycle low a few days ago (at 3.19) , but now we are heading to the daily cycle top. It's too early to short now. I think we can enter a short next week . But the real good entry will be the long entry at the DCL at the end of January... I will shot a new idea when I enter short again. Nothing to do right now here.
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ice_bird001
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Is there any updates on NGAS? Thanks.
danrindia
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@chartwatchers What should be the level to watch for close ?? Thanks for the idea
chartwatchers
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@danrindia, It's impossible to tell now... We just try to catch the follow through after the key reversal. Maybe the 20 ema...
I will close this trade early next week the latest.
xsubtownerx
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@danrindia, MACD on the daily will eventually crossover. Use that as an indicator for a target.
Cheetsbaby84
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Hi Apri, could we get an update on natural gas. Thank you for everything you do!
shares9k
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@chartwatchers Hi Arpi, Please provide your thoughts on natgas. thank you
ice_bird001
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Thanks for the update. Bought small position of dgza yesterday at 2.85. Will wait for your signal to short...
bhowe
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What do you see as an upside target? Just over $3.60? Selling today has me nervous. Im LONG currently
chartwatchers
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@bhowe, we will top tomorrow or next week. I wouldn't hold the longs too long
TraderMikeCan
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Thanks for the update.... I am also monitoring for another potential short opportunity, but the charts to me still show a potential topping closer to 3.953