In my last idea I sugggested try to get in the trade somehow because the consolidation is over sooner or later and we are breaking out. Though we couldn't catch the exact bottom and the position got risky as we broke down of the range all who were able to hold through the panic are in profit today. There was an undercut low with a false breakdown of the range but today it just seems it was a final shakeout .
My only concern : is that possible we had a mild ICL? Triangles and ranges are screwing the cycles so it's almost impossible to trade them based on cycles. We have to assume that the ICL is behind us on the 1st of November. We broke out of the range last week Thursday and the next resistance ahead of us at 3.161$. When a multi month consolidation like this breaks it bounces hard. So all who are not in the train will have to buy into the overbought conditions or wait for the never coming pullback. I still got many messages how to enter into a NatGas or UGAZ trade right now. It's really hard to help when the train is leaving the station. We entered early and had to bear a drawdawn where price seemed to go much lower. Contrarians didn't help us to hold the position, too... But it was still easier to enter early than to enter a position at the exact bottom. I saw a few people below my post who entered near to the exact bottom or added to the position at the lows. You can still check who had the balls to enter there and also post in real time . But the hardest part is just coming in the following weeks. Sit tight and let the winners run. It doesn't matter if you caught the exact bottom or not. The big money will be in the uptrend in the next 2 month.
I still think that commodities are in a new bull market. Natty also holding above the 2015 and 2016 yearly lows . The pattern has the characteristic of accumulation which wants to break to the upside.( Volume is supporting the accumulation)
I set the 200 SMA on the chart. We might or might not have a pullback to the 200 SMA from the next resistance level before breaking higher. Last year the seasonal rally was relentless. There was not much of a pullback. Though the ICL a few days ago was not that deep like last year: the consolidation was long enough to have a big rally into year end. RSI is already overbought so it's possible we will have a pullback, but it can also run for weeks in the overbought territory and before the daily cycle tops it will print an RSI divergence with higher high in the price. MACD still has a long way to run.
LONG follow through idea. We are long from 2.855.
We traded successfully last year's winter rally:
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All who want add or enter natgas/ugaz I think the time is coming today or tomorrow. Watch natgas:
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I see an interesting pattern evolving here:
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Natty is producing interesting things...
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We might be done with the pullback... I gave a possible entry yesterday for the ones at the sidelines.
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I like today's close... It was the 9th day above the 200 SMA. The chances are high we are bouncing tomorrow or Monday.
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It seems we are building a base here.
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Lost the 200 SMA today. We did this on low volume and still above the 400 EMA. The 400 EMA was very important during the last 1-1.5 year. (red arrows)We bounced many times from there. It still can be a steep flag though.
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Sorry 400 MA... If we are reversing we need to do it in 2-3 days with a close above the 400 MA.
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RSI is getting oversold also.
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On the weekly basis we are just testing back the apex of the triangle. And the RSI is at the 50 line... The weekly 200 MA was to hard to break it through we turned down from there again.
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... and the volume is low.
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Pullback volume.
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Looks like a good start. Contrarians must be kicking themselves. At least we know who sold at the exact bottom last Friday. I was holding my longs.
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I guess UGAZ will be up hard Monday. Maybe 15-20%.
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When the market moves in our favor noone is posting. Interesting.
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Adding to the position here.
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If we negate all of yesterday losses it’s going to be very bullish.
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We are almost there. 1 or 2 days and the bottom is in. We wil get a good rally after this drop.
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WE had quite the similar story with erx a few months ago.
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Looks great so far. Hopefully USA will be a buyer today... not a seller again
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Gap again.... and a gap close. Have we just picked up Wizard Watsonzou at the gap close??? I'm sure we will get know if he sells again.
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I just realized that the earlier idea where to buy this was perfect. I just didn't have the patience for a perfect entry:
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We just sliced through the 200 SMA. Will be testing the May -Nov highs again this week. If the intermediate low is in we might have the same rally we had in the green rectangle last November.
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There's an interesting question from tbuckle below. RSI just reaching overbought. After the previos intermediate low price stayed overbought for a long time. I highlighted by a red vertical ine where price was when we got overbought.... Price can run for weeks from here.
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We can easily test back 3,85 in January. If we break out of this 1 year consolidation and the cold weather continues in the states the breakout will be huge.
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Breakout from the channel. Holding the long position.
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And the breakout continues after the back test of the trendline
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Is there anyone still with me here?
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I’m going to post a long idea soon. If someone wants to enter long I think this is the time.
FYI WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE USA Natural Gas
Aggregate demand (national consumption + exports) for American natural gas was up 9.9% YoY in October. Consumption increased by 5.7% as weather was relatively colder (there were some 14% more heating degree days than in 2016). External demand also remained strong, with exports surging by almost 56.0% YoY due to robust pipeline inflows into Mexico and record high LNG sales.
In fact, according to Zeits Oil Analytics production of NGL exceeded 5 million barrels per day in October and this why I believe we saw the drop in the price of Natural Gas in December. The market assumed we had a surplus. I also believe we will get a report at the end of January that will show NGL growing an additional 2 million barrels to 7 million barrels a day.
However, strong exports growth and an increase in national consumption ensured that the growth in total demand stayed positive at almost 10% YoY. In fact, on an annualized basis, aggregate demand has not posted a single negative growth figure since January 2010. Total demand has been growing faster than consumption since May 2015, pointing to the rising weight of exports within the overall demand structure.
Pipeline and LNG exports combined reached 275.0 bcf in October 2017 (an all-time record), which is equivalent to 13.50% of national natural gas consumption on a monthly basis. Exports remain the fastest growing source of demand for American natural gas. While total demand (12-month average) increased by 15.60% (from January 2012 to October 2017), exports expanded by 103.30% over the same period.
Forecast (BlueGold research); after rising by 5.7% YoY in October, we estimate that consumption then expanded by almost 10.0% YoY in November and by 6.0% YoY in December. Given the latest weather forecasts, we anticipate to see a major 18.0% annual growth rate in January, followed by a whopping 28.0% growth rate in February and a relatively "modest" 11% growth rate in March.
REMEMBER: (heating and cooling degree days HDD’s and CDD’s) changes in HDDs have a 3x stronger effect on natural gas consumption than changes in CDDs
Last week saw EIA reported a storage report for the record books with a knockout storage draw of (359) Bcf. This one storage report knocked more than 10% of natural gas storage out, and we aren't even entering the heart of winter yet (February). Anything over 200 bcf in tomorrow's report week ending Jan 12th and we are off to the races (Nat Gas up) projections for Jan 10th through January 19th are already at 260 bcf.
HFI research; Our latest end of natural gas storage update shows an EOS of 0.9 Tcf now. The number just keeps moving lower as a combination of 1) bullish HDDs to implied draw and 2) weather is cooperating. If the weather for February turns colder sooner do to the Artic ridging then we could be exiting withdrawal season at an ~800 Bcf deficit.
Over the span of 31 injection weeks, that's a weekly deficit of ~25.81 Bcf or ~3.69 Bcf/d. Supplies will have to increase by a total of ~6.5 Bcf/d to get storage just back to the five-year average by November.
They are shorting DGAZ.
investment6300
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@MMadryga, great share! 'They are shorting DGAZ.' does this mean UGAZ are the play which I am in with Apri. Bought on the pull back breaking channel
MMadryga
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@investment6300, They are long Nat Gas but because of decay in UGAZ they are shorting DGAZ. UGAZ is comprised of 100% March contracts at the moment. I/We are long UGAZ with Apri on this one and I will likely add to the position during the late January thaw before we head back into colder February weather.
rafalo
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This thing is going down below $2.5
mwu7392
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@rafalo, You got out didnt you?! Stop whining and move on....geezus
MrRick
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(HOLD ON PEOPLE. A REVERSE SPLIT. ONLY 7 DAY NOTICE.) ------TRAP------- CAUTION --------- I believe this is illegal, We may need a lawyer. Something is rotten here.
THEY DID IT WITH JNUG AND A 90 DAY NOTICE. ( A 1in 10 reverse split) You will have 10 times less shares worth 10 times more. Example:( 1000 shares at $5.00 will become 100 shares at $50.00 enabling them to run it way down to where your shares are worthless. I was set to make a lot of money unless the pulled a reverse split. I was watching for a 90 day notice. we are trapped and at their mercy. Get out at any bounce if there is on. Natgas is probably going to be manipulated to go very low.
@MrRick, split/reverse split has no effect on your position value. In this case You will have less shares but the price of one share will be higher.
archie123
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@chartwatchers, The split may have no effect on the position, but it may make it more difficult to 'average up' to get out from being under water.
Are you concerned with still getting out in a positive light or are you out already, if you do not mind me asking.
Aggregate demand (national consumption + exports) for American natural gas was up 9.9% YoY in October. Consumption increased by 5.7% as weather was relatively colder (there were some 14% more heating degree days than in 2016). External demand also remained strong, with exports surging by almost 56.0% YoY due to robust pipeline inflows into Mexico and record high LNG sales.
In fact, according to Zeits Oil Analytics production of NGL exceeded 5 million barrels per day in October and this why I believe we saw the drop in the price of Natural Gas in December. The market assumed we had a surplus. I also believe we will get a report at the end of January that will show NGL growing an additional 2 million barrels to 7 million barrels a day.
However, strong exports growth and an increase in national consumption ensured that the growth in total demand stayed positive at almost 10% YoY. In fact, on an annualized basis, aggregate demand has not posted a single negative growth figure since January 2010. Total demand has been growing faster than consumption since May 2015, pointing to the rising weight of exports within the overall demand structure.
Pipeline and LNG exports combined reached 275.0 bcf in October 2017 (an all-time record), which is equivalent to 13.50% of national natural gas consumption on a monthly basis. Exports remain the fastest growing source of demand for American natural gas. While total demand (12-month average) increased by 15.60% (from January 2012 to October 2017), exports expanded by 103.30% over the same period.
Forecast (BlueGold research); after rising by 5.7% YoY in October, we estimate that consumption then expanded by almost 10.0% YoY in November and by 6.0% YoY in December. Given the latest weather forecasts, we anticipate to see a major 18.0% annual growth rate in January, followed by a whopping 28.0% growth rate in February and a relatively "modest" 11% growth rate in March.
REMEMBER: (heating and cooling degree days HDD’s and CDD’s) changes in HDDs have a 3x stronger effect on natural gas consumption than changes in CDDs
Last week saw EIA reported a storage report for the record books with a knockout storage draw of (359) Bcf. This one storage report knocked more than 10% of natural gas storage out, and we aren't even entering the heart of winter yet (February). Anything over 200 bcf in tomorrow's report week ending Jan 12th and we are off to the races (Nat Gas up) projections for Jan 10th through January 19th are already at 260 bcf.
HFI research; Our latest end of natural gas storage update shows an EOS of 0.9 Tcf now. The number just keeps moving lower as a combination of 1) bullish HDDs to implied draw and 2) weather is cooperating. If the weather for February turns colder sooner do to the Artic ridging then we could be exiting withdrawal season at an ~800 Bcf deficit.
Over the span of 31 injection weeks, that's a weekly deficit of ~25.81 Bcf or ~3.69 Bcf/d. Supplies will have to increase by a total of ~6.5 Bcf/d to get storage just back to the five-year average by November.
They are shorting DGAZ.