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NatGas - Missed or Escaped?

OANDA:NATGASUSD   天然气差价合约
I got a few messages that we missed the NatGas rally. I'm not so sure about it...
Yes we missed this pop, but it looks fishy to me.
We are in the 2nd daily cycle of Natty and this daily cycle was not able to run to new highs. The previous daily cycle was a great run but the daily cycle decline was too strong... We got very close to the the ICL low at 2,4$. I was close to call a DCL at 24-25th April but after that scary first daily cycle low we should have had a steeper DCL...

Today's whole candlestick is out of the Bollinger Bands . This signal with the overbought RSI with decreasing volume is really strange.
So I think we are not at the beginning of a new daily cycle as many traders think, but we just topped today.
So I think we not missed the rally but escaped the possible false breakout of this consolidation.
If this is the case and we topped today this daily cycle is left translated daily cycle with a lower high which means a failed daily cycle.

Based on this speculation I will start a short trade in Natty here.
It's going to be a very small trade , with small margin impact : 2-3%, maximum 5%.
If I'm not right the volume will come in and we are breaking higher in the following few days but first price needs to get back between the Bollinger Bands . So we will still have time to stop out the position if we are in the wrong direction.

NEW SHORT ENTRY - up to 5% margin impact.
It's a very risky trade because Natty is a beast if it runs... If we don't reverse in 2-3 days and start a serious decline I will stop the position.
评论: Out of the BB
评论: And I don't like UGAZ.
Fishy.
评论: Just in case I set a stop to breakeven. We are foredoomed to win here.
评论: A left translated daily cycle is under construction.
If we break 3$ longs are in big trouble.
I sit tight with my break even stop. It's an experimental trade of my cycle speculation.
交易手动结束:
I closing my shorts in this panic.
Natty will find its DCL soon.
评论: More than 10% profit.
Arpi, do you think the today´s low is finally a DCL ?
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Good. You have better performance on gas than oil.
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Thanks Arpi! Fun little ride to play. DGAZ did very well.
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Arpi, shorting oil is where its at right now.
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Closed my short this morning pre market as well, good call on this one!
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Hi would you give me some update on gas? thank you
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I stopped out my DGAZ to preserve a small profit. Will re-evaluate the cycle here....
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@bertcoin, I saw $3.3 is resistance or max is $3.35 for NG. I will wait EOD to decide to jump back in DGAZ. What do you think? Thanks
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bertcoin mvhoang2001
@mvhoang2001, Tempting, but. We're overdue for a cycle drop.... If I just play the cycle, I should get back in. But this is Natty....
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@bertcoin, Yes, It's nutty. I think could go long if break $3.16
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