Hello Traders, back from a short holiday (to short..) lets look what NIFTY50-darling has done the last days!" The past week NIFTY50 made higher highs and higher lows and to my view broke out above the former high, placed at 10137.85 and 10178.95 at Sept.19! The pattern from Aug. 02 at 10137.85 to 9687.55 at Sept. 28 was a flat-correction, labbeld [a-b-c]-((iv))! This fulfilled the rule of alternation in EW terms, while wave ((ii)) correction was a zigzag-pattern! In terms of price the correction in wave ((ii)) retreaced a bit more than 0.5 of wave ((i)), in terms of time it needed a bit less than 0.618 of the advance of wave ((i))! Both are common targets for a wave ii correction. The past two tradingdays you can observe the dotted blue trendline, which connected the high at 10178.95 and the highs from this week Thursday and Friday, and have been penetraded by price and did not broke out above todays high. NIFTY50 opened that day at the trendline and still decline the rest of the session. The longer the line is touched and not overcome the more important it becomes. Second aspect in candlestick analyse is that todays pricebar shows a "dark-cloud-cover-formation, which is a reversal pattern, but need to confirmed in the next two trading sessions or so. It may possible that NIFTY50 will show a small decline of lesser degree and will correct to around ~ 10242 zone (the lower rising boundary line). As long as the open Gap at 10120-10104 (0.382 FibRT of the advance is placed here..) from Oct.13 will not be closed the trend is up with targets around 10456 zone, were the dotted pink trendline and the black one crossed each other. A slightly declining VIX is supporting the bullish view, while RSI (c,14) is still declining also. But this indicator is showing divergence for a the last days and weeks. Todays a/d-Ratio was at 1.18 (EoD) while it was yesterday strong at 1.94! The second best count to my view is that we have seen a-b-c---A correction, a expanding wave B, which is close to so or will do around ~ 10488 and after that a new decline in a wave C to complete the expanding flat pattern. At the chart below you can see NIFTYBank which is possible to labbel in a"triangle-correction" were a wave "d" is done and a decline in a wave "e" to 24212 area is at forefront to complete the pattern. More bearish potencial exist. Have a great weekend Questions and Comments are welcome! Note!---> This analysis can be wrong. It is just in my view the one with the most probabiltity with the Data which are available to me and by my interpretation of the EW Theory. If you trade this it is done by your own risk and decision! Keep that in Mind!!!! Data by NSEIndia.com and moneycontrol.com!
My comments are for BN only.
I will like to see BN to cross ATH by a big margin, most probably on Monday itself.
pankaj564
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few observations...tomorrow will be 21st day from bottom of 9687...
next month will be 21st from bottom of 6825...
BottomlineWealth
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(b) in purple is more than 100% retracement from wave (a) in purple color. Is this valid for counting ?
ruebennase
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@BottomlineWealth,
Hello,
no it`s not. May it makes it a "running flat" but the pattern suggest the flat idea. To my view it is not an impulse...
Have agreat day