I think we might form a topping pattern, and take some time to break down here, so, I'll look to short on a retest of the earnings level above. Price won't slice through this level immediately, it'll take some time to coil, and eventually break out confirming the decline.
With how steep valuation is, I'm inclined to look for hedges to my long positions, that's why I'm long the Euro, among other assets.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
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Waiting to short higher.
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I caved and shorted a small 4% position today. If we don't form the H&S pattern, we simply topped as a double top after earnings, which is also viable. My H&S prognostication was derived from expecting a tad more upside in equities as a whole, but after most stocks in the DJIA reported earnings, we had a bearish top signal today, so, it might be starting a correction here.
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I'll start shorting gradually, if we go higher I'll add.
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Well, it never got to my preferred entry, and now I'm not entirely sure it is safe to short, but it is a good short candidate to hedge your long exposure at least. Perhaps keep an eye on it.
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The pattern here might be a triangle and not a topping pattern...I would stand aside.
Will stalk out the bottom contingent how it unfurls to claim entry.
KevinT
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How do you see the odds between double top (as it now is) and triple top? Personally I favour entry nr 1 after a double top is made as the third test may not occur.
IvanLabrie
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@KevinT, I think odds are lower if we enter here, due to the support level to the left. Price will take some time to gather strength for sellers to push it down. It might need some catalyst that is yet unknown perhaps. The lowest risk short, is on a rally to the key earnings level (thick green line). We can risk 1-3 ATR as our stop loss when that level is revisited.