IvanLabrie
做空

NZDUSD: Once again, retracing for more shorts

FX:NZDUSD   纽元/美元
NZDUSD             can be bought, it was a long against the trend a day or two ago, and if it stays above the 'Bullish if above level' you can hold longs in it and aim higher. If it breas the resistance above (the low of the Brexit day) it could go and test the 'Brexit key level' which is the level sitting at 0.71342.
I don't think it can go into a full blown uptrend, but rather, start a significant retracement in a longer term and a much stronger and sharper downtrend. So this is probably just the beginning.

You can either long here, buy dips, or if you're long, hold, look to add on dips and move stops to 0.69196. Risk 0.5-1% per trade entry, and aim to trail stops after we advance above resistance, and start thinking of shorting this market at 0.71342 with a wide stop. The preferred method would be to use no stop, and enter over 5 days after hitting this level, as long as we don't close above it, and then trade with a LOW above that range. Seeing new lows after we arrive there would confirm the downside is inminent, but we still need to see if we can in fact break that level.
As you know, I'm long precious metals for a couple days now, that's why I didn't buy this pair which is highly correlated with gold             anyway. I'm also long TLT             as a hedge to my equity trades, which is also correlated to this risk off theme.

Good luck,

Ivan Labrie.
评论: If it doesn't break above the level here it'll stall and turn down. We need to see what gold does next too. Flat for now.
评论: The move up has been volatile and hit levels where bulls should have held the declines, so I think it's simply a pullback in a downtrend.



Not safe to short it yet, so leave it alone for now.
评论: What a boring update right?

Sometimes, no trade, is the right trade...I hope this helps people avoid loss.
评论:

You can start looking for low risk shorts under yesterday's low. Problem is it might still rally higher, but, the setup is there, although not my favorite. I prefer the theme in the USDMXN or USDNOK, even USDSEK or GBPUSD, are more interesting right now.
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