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NZD/USD Chartpack - Technicals & Trade Setup

FX:NZDUSD   纽元/美元
NZDUSD             forms bearish engulfing after rejection at the stiff resistance of 0.6969 (on dailies), major trend resumes bearish swings to slide below EMAs after the failure swings at the stiff resistance of 0.7499.

The shooting star at 0.6902 and bearish engulfing patterns at 0.6897, 0.7176 and 0.6846 levels on daily and monthly terms respectively.

The attempts of spikes are restrained below 21DMAs & 100DMAs (on daily and monthly terms respectively), for now, the current price of this pair is hovering to slide below 7DMAs especially after yesterday’s bearish engulfing pattern candle (refer daily chart ).

We’ve already stated in our previous post also that this pair pops up with the bearish pattern candles that have now hampered the momentum in the consolidation phase to retrace upto 50% Fibonacci levels.

For now, we foresee more dips after sliding below 50% as 7EMA crosses below 21EMA which is a bearish crossover.

It is traced heaps of bearish indications on both daily as well as monthly terms, consequently, we’ve been seeing steep slumps from the last three months.

The consolidation phase in the major trend seems to have been exhausted at the stiff resistance of 0.7499 levels and more slumps are likely below 50% Fibonacci retracements (refer monthly chart).

Most importantly, both leading oscillators ( RSI and Stochastic curves on monthly terms) have been constantly converging to the ongoing price dips that signal the strength and intensified momentum in the bearish trend .

Notably, the current price is now below psychological levels of 0.70.

Well, contemplating above technical rationale in both short and intermediate terms, we advocate tunnel spreads snapping rallies to target upto 0.6879 levels (i.e. about another 25 pips southwards from the spot reference of 0.6903). Use upper strikes at 0.0.6919 and lower strikes at 0.6879, these leveraged instruments are likely to fetch magnified effects in payoff structure as long as underlying spot FX keeps dipping.

Alternatively, on hedging grounds, we recommend shorting mid-month month futures as the underlying spot FX likely to target southwards 0.67 levels in the medium run.

Writers in a futures contract are expected to maintain margins in order to open and maintain a short futures position.

Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's hourly NZD spot index is inching towards 19 levels (which is neutral) ahead of RBNZ’s OCR announcement, we expect the RBNZ to still be somewhat cautious tomorrow, perhaps disappointing a market looking for a slightly more hawkish tone. While hourly USD spot index was at shy above -21 (neutral) while articulating (at 06:38 GMT             ).
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