- two consecutive quarterly falls for CPI data and petrol price had a decline of nearly 10% - milk dairy prices on the decline - RBNZ - USD Rate hikes still on the table. Looking for direction from Non Farm Payrolls. - Milk : Fonterra cuts forecast milk price to NZ4.50/KG
Keeps dividend range at 20 to 30 NZ cents per share Sees oversupply in market
Comments from RBNZ:
Economy supported by low rates, high immigration, construction, falling fuel prices Says if wage and price setting outcomes settle lower, could cut rates Not currently considering a rate increase Would be appropriate to lower the cash rate if demand weakens NZD unjustifiably high and unsustainable
Comments from BNZ
We do expect GDP growth to slow and for that growth to be lower than the RBNZ anticipates Will be accompanied by a weakening in the exchange rate that will offset the disinflationary impact of the slowdown leaving the RBNZ's projected inflation track largely unchanged
continued pressure down. Locked in some partial profit. majority position still open for further downside
geewilson
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Good comments, I totally agree that the NZD is over valued at the moment and unless the Dairy commodity price starts to increase we could see this pair push back into the 0.65-0.69 region.
IvanLabrie
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Excellent insights my friend.
Have you seen my longer term potential uptrend publications?
EURNZD and GBPNZD look really promising on the long side.
USD is on shakey ground, I wouldn't try to play USD strength before crude starts falling again.