Here, I have used the time cycles approach to determine major lows in the FX:NZDUSD pair. After doing little bit of shifting of the WEEKLY and MONTHLY cycle arcs, I was able to figure out that, the FX:NZDUSD pair is currently in a 3073 days or 100 MONTH cycle, on average. This means that every time we reach the end of a 100 month period, we are most likely to be at a SIGNIFICANT LOW on this pair. The major structure of this market is still BULLISH, which is represented by HH's and HL on this monthly chart. We also got 2 VALID MONTHLY TREND LINES that could potentially act as support and possibly turn this pair back to the upside. See the chart above for more details.
For detailed explanation on the time cycle approach, check out my previously posted ideas listed under the RELATED IDEAS section below.
NOTE: Today we have 3 high impact news coming out from US in less than 15 minutes, Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, and Unemployment Rate. Everyone will be paying close attention to the Non-Farm Employment Change (NFP), since this news always causes huge moves in the markets.
Please feel free to AGREE or DISAGREE with this idea by leaving a comment below. Hit that thumbs up button (top left corner of this chart) if you like the idea. Thank you everyone for all the SUPPORT that you have given me so far, I truly appreciate it. Good luck everyone :)
Thanks again mate that graph you sent is exactly what I needed, I should have checked elliot and the rsi! looks like a powerful move coming :) Im hoping it will reverse soon as its loitering around a support zone at the moment. Your comments have been invaluable though and i really appreciate the help youve given. I was lacking in confidence in this department but I feel a bit more capable now! If you have any recommended reading on the subject that would be great! Ive read a brief introduction about it by constance brown but it was only really a chapter.
moneymaking
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Hey mate, no problem. Glad to help. Thank you for the kind words. I would suggest pick any 1 of the top 10 technical textbooks out there and start reading. There is really no best technical trading textbooks out there, to me they are all the same. Understanding the concepts in any technical textbooks is not that difficult, but what is challenging is then trying to apply those concepts in real time market conditions. That's where most traders have difficulty with.
ivan.tory.56
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Also thank you very much for replying
moneymaking
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No problem mate. I love answering questions :)
ivan.tory.56
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So if I have it right the AUDGBP should be due a rally? I dont know how to send you my graph but i have an 84 period cycle going from the 1.10.2008 low to the 1.10.2015 which is in a weeks time. Id send it you but all i can find is a publish button (which i have now done with no comments)
moneymaking
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Hey mate, yeah. I saw your AUDGBP cycle chart and from that I believe that pair is highly likely to move up in coming months. Do note sometimes the lows will not be exact, that has happened before where some pairs have gone down a bit before going higher. Below is my take on the AUDGBP pair. Market is currently around the 61.8% fib level and we the monthly structure is bullish for with new Higher high (HH) being made. And we also potentially have an ABCD pattern that is completing right at the 78.6% fib level as well as at the previous support zone.
moneymaking
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Sorry forget to add that, ABCD pattern also completing exactly at the monthly trend line :)
ivan.tory.56
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Could you please explain how you use these cycles?
moneymaking
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Correction: near the beginning of second line I meant to say "market usually forms a major low before going higher".
moneymaking
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Hey ivan, yeah sure no problem. The main purpose for using these types of cycles is to determine where are we most likely to get a major low formed on a certain pair and also when that is likely to occur. As we get closer towards the end on 1 monthly arc cycle, market usually forms a major low before going lower. So in the chart above, I expect this pair to be at a major low around 2017-08-01. So at that moment, I will be most interested in taking only long positions on this pair, since we are highly likely to be at a major monthly low on this pair. That's all there is to the time cycles analysis. The sine cycles illustrates the same thing but in a different way. Hope this made sense, if not do ask more questions. I would love to answer them. Just want to make sure that you get the concept of time cycles. All the BEST mate :)