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Bullish Flag or Falling Wedge?: Catching Structural Wave 3

BITFINEX:OMGUSD   OmiseGo / Dollar
OmiseGO looks to be forming two bullish structures on the 4HR data, although a possible completion of the crown reversal is still possible. We seem to be in a downtrend channel , so buying is countercyclical until we see a puncture of the descending channel . Breaching the bottom of the flag could create the conditions necessary for a falling wedge reversal, with similar TP levels. Breaking the newly created trendline could be an early warning signal for further downward pressure.
The bullish flag sets us with a MIN TP of $14.40, MID TP of $18.14, and a MAX TP of $20.58
The crown reversal could push price as low as $4.59.

Key levels to watch to the downside:
- Trading range support at $6.93
- A breach of the flag to the downside could unlock the falling wedge pattern, with institutional buying or selling at $6.49 (fundamentals and market conditions support buying at the moment).
- Major key fibo support at $5.43
Key levels to watch to the upside:
- Key fibo resistance at $9.26
- Fibo resistance sell zone between $10.96 to $12.16
- All-time high at $13.70

This is literally a minefield so trade with care and take you time…GLWT. As always, I'll be updating this thread and posting trades.
-Erik
交易开始: Ok, so the key fibo was nice and strong so we got rejected and reentered the long box. I expect down to the flag or wedge line we have on the chart.
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交易结束:到达止损
交易开始
评论: Got stopped yesterday risk free. Re-entered and almost got stopped out at a loss :O
We are doing better today, but I've got it moved to risk free again...so...lets see what happens.
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评论: Also, we breached the trading range support on the other chart.
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评论: SIT. REP.
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评论: One more update: take a look at this chart...
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If we breach the major key fibo level (0.618 of the bearish swing) it is unlikely that we will set new all-time highs in this pair until we see a deeper correction. SO...if we are hoping for a structural wave 3 in OMGUSD we will need the strength to flow from BTCUSD and that means a return to some kind of mimicry. We will also need to pay attention to price action around the major fibo int he OMGBTC chart closely. That's all for now.
评论: There is an uptrend line ahead.
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Still no breach of the major key-fibo here
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评论: RSI is getting overbought pretty fast here... I think I'll hold on! Hmmmmm
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Trading range resistance is still in play here
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交易手动结束
评论: Watching this... too risky to short on exit tho I think.
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评论: Things are still static today....waiting for a break to the upside or downside.
评论: Uptrend line is breached!
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评论: Broke a few supports today...
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Uhoh....
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评论: Double bottom? I think we'll see further downward pressure to form the big falling wedge.
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评论: Still fishing for the bottom. We should see a really nice countercyclical bounce here soon (i'll post a dedicated thread when I see something). For now, here are some lines.
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评论: Oups...above is ripple. Here is OMG...lol
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评论: Broke the bull flag line again!
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Harmonic/fibo extension targets are next in the other chart
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评论: Hit the hourly fibo extension and broke out of the flag! This is still a countercyclical context. Will post a new thread tomorrow.
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评论: We are at a huge classic fibo resistance area in the USD chart, where we see confluence: a major and minor fibo resistance (two purple lines). The fibo extension is acting as support for now, and there is excitement that we broke out of the flag. BUT! This can fall apart rather quickly. RSI is overbought in both charts...let's watch for a sell signal.
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评论: RSI is making a sell signal in the 4HR.
评论:
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评论: Bear flag? The big flag line could stop the bloodletting.
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RSI is making a sell signal here
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评论:
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Major key fibo just got punched again,
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交易开始
交易结束:到达止损: Haha
评论: The flag was invalidated, but the support breaks make a short trade possible. Aiming for the extension which is also the trading range support. Then I'll look to open a long from support! :)
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交易手动结束: On BTC strength. But I'm not ready to go long yet.
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评论: FYI: Small timeframe shows a bounce from the bottom bull flag line. 4HR RSI is not friendly yet, but it's time to watch.
评论: This is still shorting territory, as structural bull flag invalidated: Trading range support broken, which was a fibo extension.
We still have the structural falling wedge: Next trading range support is at $6.5, followed by an hourly fibo extension at $6.
交易结束:到达目标: Short closed now.
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评论: Wow that was a big sell off. Short term bounce next? I'm too scared to trade in this countercyclical context tho :P
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4HR:
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评论: RSI is making a selling signal for the next selloff wave?
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评论: Very nice bounce! Is this the bottom?
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What now?!
How to catch a falling knife?
回复
Agency PRO RaulPuiu
@RaulPuiu, hahaha yeah I try not to catch those! A lot of money is leaving the alt market. I suspect there will be heavy losses in the BTCUSD chart soon, too. Fiat is where you wanna be for now ;)
回复
Imo them releasing that their wallet and blockchain will be implemented somewhere next year makes me bearish untill we approach that.
Half a year is a long time in crypto. Btc went more then 500% this year.
Converted shorted omg for btc will look for nice entry back into omg in the future.

Thanks for the analyses and updates.
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Agency PRO Timeisaflatcircle
@Timeisaflatcircle, you could be right. I'm bearish, too. A lot of capital has left the altcoins market. Thanks for sharing.
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This is a long post. You originally posted about a short. Are you now considering a long position?
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Agency PRO WheelmanM80
@WheelmanM80, short trade was closed. Its time to look for long entries.
+1 回复
@Agency, yes, OMG has very good support at this level. Let's see how it plays out
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Love your dedication, I would've started tracking something else
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Agency PRO bambam320
@bambam320, yeah! We got a nice 500% ROE from OmiseGo during it's bull run, so it's been worth tracking it even if we've only made a few dollars shorting this time around. It's been a good indicator of alt market sentiment, too, along with Ethereum.
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