QBE Long term short

7 Year descending triangle
-Established downtrend
-Huge pattern with a few out of line movements in Feb, Sep and Nov which make entry difficult
-Out of line movements, nonetheless, denote the likely direction of the breakout

-Will look to establish 80 basis points of risk initially in 2 tranches
-In the case of such a large pattern, one of 3 things will cause me to pull the trigger:

1. A 4-6 week 'launching' pattern i.e. horizontal range, H&S
2. A breakout and retest of boundary line
3. A decisive break with large volume and weekly close below the out of line weeks mentioned above
Looking promising but would prefer a retest of boundary before pulling the trigger. As you can see, price has traded south of the boundary before so a conservative stance is prudent.
It is worth noting with volume that with a valid bullish break, volume is accompanied immediately whereas bearish price action, volume tends to follow after a significant decline.
评论: May have a reliable sell signal soon
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