what I see is a good opportunity if this scenario continues the way I expect it if this is going to be traded as the "schoolbook" of Chartpatterns explains.
We had a strong momentum and were about to build a double-top in the daily-chart and hit that ATH soon. That didn`t work out but still shows the market is ready to climb due the declining volumen since we`ve decided to consolidate and create this beautiful Wedge-Pattern.
Support and resistance of this pattern got confirmed by "Fakeouts" and Buy&Sell-orders. The declining volume shows that the market "takes the chips off the table" to wait for a breakout and retracement to find a nice buy-opportunity.
Important:
The DAILY-CHART shows an UP-Trend including 5 Waves and headed to the consolidation Wave-Pattern A/B/C. After that we`ve decided to continue the trend and just builded the second wave (correction) which has stopped at a very important support zone (50% retracement). I don`t know how to add a second picture with the daily-chart. It shows that this breakout could create a longterm LONG-Move and this UP-Trend to break ATH if we don`t build that double-TOP.
The journey could end at the top of the last momentum if that third wave (Breakout) end at the same level of wave 1.
Good analysis! I think you are right about the W1 top location. However, shouldn't there be an ABC correction for W2? I see a 5-3-5 zig zag pattern for W2. If that is the case, then I think your subwave 3 is actually the A and subwave 4 is the B and C may or may have not yet been reached (my best guess is we just hit the 4 and are looking for the final 5 before completing W2.
Trading2ez
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@peteabe, Yea absolutly. That`s how TA can be so subjectively perceived. When you take a look into the detailed picture you`ll see a Wedge and a Fakeout towards North which has been canceled by the bitcoin-weakness. If you want, take a look at my "Daddy Bitcoin - Discussion". BTC has way too much influence currently. The problem on TA is that you can extend all kind of patterns / trendchannels and could cause the market to construe them in diffrent ways.
In this case I could pull the end of W1 to W3 and call it Wave A which would make sense due the fact that we need a consolidation before we hit the impulsphase. The problem is that "Elliot-Waves" are way more complex and include way more rules to call them a valid "Eilliot-Wave-Pattern". The cryptomarket has "other rules" or less rules due the fact that we have so many beginners in the market who don`t wanna miss the milktrain.
But yea it`s true: You can perviece 3 A-B-C waves or 1-5 impulswaves. :-) Weither version 1 or 2.. there is no real Elliotpattern I see. :-) And thanks for your feedback.
peteabe
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@Irasor, Yes yes, I see your point about the wedge. Your point about paying attention to how the BTCUSD(T) pair relate to this one is very important one; one that I need to learn a lot more about. Some very good points, indeed! I guess we'll have to keep watching to see how this story plays out. ;-) And thanks for your reply!