# SPX and Elliott Waves

SP:SPX   标准普尔500指数
747 6
If we apply Elliott Waves over SPX             historical data, we are due to another crash. The reverse zone should be around SM300 if it follows previous tendencies. US Government Debt to GDP ratio confirms the problem. The first two crashes are similar because Govt             Debt/GDP was similar. Now Govt             Debt/GDP is 80% bigger.

BTC             and USD should increase value during this crash.

One EW rule is that wave 3 cannot be the shortest and yours is.
Cheers
John

Is the reverse zone the bottom of the crash, or the temporary A-B-C correction?

I've been contemplating BTC price in the next crash. I've come upon this article really interesting. What do you think
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Because I can do math. Here’s what I discovered:

# of Bitcoins currently in circulation: Roughly 16,350,000

Current Bitcoin price vs. the USD: Roughly \$2500

1,000 bitcoins represents roughly 0.006% of the total number of Bitcoins that exist

Average drop in Bitcoin price from selloff of just 1,000 bitcoins: \$30 (see raw data of price moves at Bitcoincharts.com)

Estimated drop in Bitcoin price that would occur from the sale of 10,000 bitcoins (just 0.06% of the Bitcoin supply): \$300

Estimated drop in Bitcoin price from sale of 100,000 bitcoins (just 0.6% of the Bitcoin supply): \$3000 (but wait, Bitcoin is only worth \$2,500, so wouldn’t a selloff of 100,000 Bitcoins plunge the price toward zero? YES, it would.)

Value of Bitcoin if just 1% of current Bitcoin owners try to sell all their Bitcoins: Approaching \$ZERO

What percentage of current Bitcoin owners think ALL their Bitcoins are worth the current high price: 100%

Actual percentage of current Bitcoin owners who can unload Bitcoins without crashing Bitcoin values toward zero: Perhaps 1% – 2%
(and that’s generous)

Percentage of current Bitcoin owners who are going to learn a very expensive lesson in “tulip bulb mania”: Perhaps 98% – 99%
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https://www.naturalnews.com/2017-05-24-do-the-math-heres-the-rational-analysis-why-99-of-current-bitcoin-owners-will-never-be-able-to-sell-bitcoins-for-anything-close-to-the-imagined-current-value.html

KenzoM
@KenzoM, currency is only a standardized form of evaluating a product or service. There is no sense in evaluating a currency by itself. Its value exists because people trust in it and trust is not something that can be measured only perceived.

So I don't think you should worry about this. The real threat to bitcoin is governments and they are slowly starting to join the ride.

Best regards.

claudiohfg
@claudiohfg, thanks for your reply. I understand what you mean and that is surely true for currency in the traditional sense as the dollar/euro etc..
But bitcoin doesn't really fit perfectly in that category. How many people really hold bitcoin because they believe in its value/idea? So many buy it as an investment to make money.

perceived value isn't real value, people thought the housing market/ the 2001 internet boom were solid. and they 'believed/trusted' in it. We all know what happended.
I'm a major believer in decentralised cryptocurrency, but this just seems bubbly, and they always burst.

Here's a 10min youtube video about this, more compelling argument/reasoning (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91oot6hKbx4). Not saying i'm wrong or right, just good to have another perspective. I'd love to hear your response if you would take the time to watch.

Kind regards

KenzoM
@KenzoM, he is comparing the amount of bitcoin sold in Bitfinex to the total of bitcoins in the market.

Today at Bitfinex has a 24h volume around \$98,983,300 (23.567 BTC).

Bitcoin market cap doubled since it costed \$2200, date of his analysis.

If we assume that the total amount of bitcoins exchanged in Bitfinex is the same in both periods, 100BTC equals 0,4243% of the total.

If we assume that this amount was half what it is now, 100BTC equals 0,8486% of the total.

A variation of \$80 over \$2200 on the price of BTC equals 3,636%.

While it is not equal, it is pretty close. Seems right to me.

claudiohfg
@claudiohfg, yeah... maybe making calculations like this isn't as predictive as the example. Only time will tell...

But for the s&p.. You think wave 4 correction is about to happen, followed by last push wave 5, for completing wave 5?

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