BTC and USD should increase value during this crash.
I've been contemplating BTC price in the next crash. I've come upon this article really interesting. What do you think
Because I can do math. Here’s what I discovered:
# of Bitcoins currently in circulation: Roughly 16,350,000
Current Bitcoin price vs. the USD: Roughly $2500
1,000 bitcoins represents roughly 0.006% of the total number of Bitcoins that exist
Average drop in Bitcoin price from selloff of just 1,000 bitcoins: $30 (see raw data of price moves at Bitcoincharts.com)
Estimated drop in Bitcoin price that would occur from the sale of 10,000 bitcoins (just 0.06% of the Bitcoin supply): $300
Estimated drop in Bitcoin price from sale of 100,000 bitcoins (just 0.6% of the Bitcoin supply): $3000 (but wait, Bitcoin is only worth $2,500, so wouldn’t a selloff of 100,000 Bitcoins plunge the price toward zero? YES, it would.)
Value of Bitcoin if just 1% of current Bitcoin owners try to sell all their Bitcoins: Approaching $ZERO
What percentage of current Bitcoin owners think ALL their Bitcoins are worth the current high price: 100%
Actual percentage of current Bitcoin owners who can unload Bitcoins without crashing Bitcoin values toward zero: Perhaps 1% – 2%
(and that’s generous)
Percentage of current Bitcoin owners who are going to learn a very expensive lesson in “tulip bulb mania”: Perhaps 98% – 99%
So I don't think you should worry about this. The real threat to bitcoin is governments and they are slowly starting to join the ride.
But bitcoin doesn't really fit perfectly in that category. How many people really hold bitcoin because they believe in its value/idea? So many buy it as an investment to make money.
perceived value isn't real value, people thought the housing market/ the 2001 internet boom were solid. and they 'believed/trusted' in it. We all know what happended.
I'm a major believer in decentralised cryptocurrency, but this just seems bubbly, and they always burst.
Here's a 10min youtube video about this, more compelling argument/reasoning (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91oot6hKbx4). Not saying i'm wrong or right, just good to have another perspective. I'd love to hear your response if you would take the time to watch.
Today at Bitfinex has a 24h volume around $98,983,300 (23.567 BTC).
Bitcoin market cap doubled since it costed $2200, date of his analysis.
If we assume that the total amount of bitcoins exchanged in Bitfinex is the same in both periods, 100BTC equals 0,4243% of the total.
If we assume that this amount was half what it is now, 100BTC equals 0,8486% of the total.
A variation of $80 over $2200 on the price of BTC equals 3,636%.
While it is not equal, it is pretty close. Seems right to me.
But for the s&p.. You think wave 4 correction is about to happen, followed by last push wave 5, for completing wave 5?