markrivest
教学

Elliot Wave Tutorial - How to Determine the Correct Wave Count

SP:SPX   标准普尔500指数
180 4 4
There are four dimensions in analyzing any market; Price, Time, Momentum, and Sentiment.
There are always at least two interpretations to any wave count, bullish or bearish . To discover the correct wave count you must move beyond the price dimension and focus on evidence from the other three dimensions.

The SPX             chart illustrated is from 2014 - 2015. I've shown just one of several possible Elliott counts.
Even if the analyst knew nothing of Elliott , the pattern March to August looks like a base. What happened immediately after the last daily bar on this chart was a four trading day 11% decline.

There was an abundance of evidence in the dimensions of momentum and sentiment from April to August that would have alerted analysts of a possible bearish outcome.

Some of the momentum evidence was: 1) RSI bearish divergences; 2) NYSE new highs             bearish divergences; 3) A/D line divergences.

Sentiment evidence came from: 1) high Market Vane Bullish Consensus reading of 65% at mid May SPX             top; 2) VIX             in early August at low level and a bearish divergence vs. the May level.

This is just some of the momentum and sentiment evidence. There was also evidence from the time dimension which is to detailed to explain in this post. There was also evidence in the price dimension from Fibonacci analysis.

Whenever the you find that the balance of evidence from all four dimensions is weighted in one direction, you look for wave counts that comply with the evidence.

Currently the SPX             , other US stock indices and many indices world wide have the same bearish weight of evidence as April to August 2015.

The SPX             in mid January 2017 is vulnerable to a 10% decline in the next two to four weeks.

Expand your vision beyond the price dimension, the answers are out there.

Mark



great post - can you please do a small video to expand on these concepts?
thanks

回复
markrivest Reekardo
Hi @Reekardo,


Thanks for the suggestion. I write trading articles for several magazines, I will be doing an article on these concepts in the near future and will let you know when it is being published.

Mark

回复
Nice post. Enjoyed it.
回复
markrivest tomj2417
Hi @tomj2417,

Thanks.
回复
ZH 简体中文
EN English
EN English (UK)
EN English (IN)
DE Deutsch
FR Français
ES Español
IT Italiano
PL Polski
SV Svenska
TR Türkçe
RU Русский
PT Português
ID Bahasa Indonesia
MS Bahasa Melayu
TH ภาษาไทย
VI Tiếng Việt
JA 日本語
KO 한국어
ZH 繁體中文
AR العربية
首页 股票筛选器 外汇信号搜索器 加密货币信号搜索器 财经日历 如何运作 图表功能 网站规则 版主 网站 & 经纪商解决方案 插件 图表库 功能请求 博客 & 新闻 常见问题 帮助 & 维基 Twitter
个人资料 个人资料设置 账号和账单 我的支持通知 联系支持 已发表观点 粉丝 正在关注 私人消息 聊天 退出