SPX long term chart

SP:SPX   标准普尔500指数
SP500 is testing an 18Y trendline . The index was above this resistance line only for 4 years out of the 18. This four years can be characterized by the irrational exuberance of the market, which sadly ended up in the dot-com bubble burst. What is amazing is that, investors have never anticipated the future as bright as that time ever since.

As the price has tested this remarkable resistance line a lot lately, it is worth to ask the question: are future expectations so badly promising, that smart money would bet on getting above the 13 year resistance line? We cannot exlude this scenario, but as the market is getting prepared for the FED rate hike cycle, I think there are more downside risks. Does this mean that SP500 is going to fall out of the rising wedge? Not necessarily.

My point is that, till there are no clear signs of an increasing global growth rate (and inflation rate in developed countries) or a surprise easing from the FED, it will be very hard to convince long-trem investors that there is much upside potential. Decreasing liquidity (tightening) and low yield expectations eventually will lead to position squering limiting upside movements.

Thoug, as the situation is quite balanced lately, it is too early to builld short positions. I expect the price to test the trend-line once again, moreover, a false break-out also has its possibility. 2100-2200 is really a tough resistance zone , I do think the price will not be able to get above this level. If a higher high coincides with a build in risk-averision, I will buy EUR and JPY against the Dollar, and will buy USD against NZD.
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