We broke the key level of 3026-3030 and the psychological level of 3000. DO NOT ENTER LONGS OR YOU RISK BLOWING YOUR ACCOUNT WIDE OPEN
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There is a high likelihood the sell-off will continue Friday and into Monday and potentially even Tuesday of next week as this black swan event of the coronavirus lingers all over the global markets (world-wide, not just the USA).
While eventually a bounce may come, it will eventually be faded as algo-bots look for profit as confirmed several times by the NYSE 'Arms' Index. The global markets have clearly unwound and significant fear has clearly blossomed into basically, a crash. As a result of this virus just getting started, and transitioning into a pandemic with new cases popping up all over the world, I see no MAJOR support until we reach the 2600s.
This trend-line has acted as support 8-9 times over the past decade from major corrections and I see no reason why it is not the potential actual "bottom" UNLESS it lingers longer than Q1 of this year.
IF this virus lingers for several quarters such as through Q2 and Q3, I will have to revisit this idea as further downside could be very possible.
How much blood has run underneath since this analysis ...
MrMarketMaker
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Think its time to go long. Everyone calling for more downside with no bounce...squeeze will be epic.
UnknownUnicorn3621935
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Looks pretty good, good advice too! I was thinking to consider stocks in the 2700s, but we have to see how the virus evolves of course. The US market is more at risk as people don't have healthcare to visit the hospital if severe case (I mean a lot of people not all). One concern is the fed can't help the economy (they can help markets with QE but that doesn't make people leave the house). Stocks still a little expensive at 22.4 P/E - 20 and 20% correction get us to your level or so as well.
PaulDeep19131
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@xnyl98, I agree with you. The one thing that 'scares' me here is that every stock no matter what it is appears to essentially have hit a concrete wall - all stocks - all indices. I don't see any major support until the 2600s which is pretty frightening considering we have been programmed to buy all dips at all times. People will get burned for this immensely.
If this lingers longer than Q1 of 2020 which is a full unknown, there is a possibility this could turn into a 50% retracement from 3400 and turn into a global recession.
Of course, no one hopes that happens but everything is on the table. The markets have undergone full blown panic and rate cuts won't help.