ChartArt

Why a Donald Trump win is NOT a surprise

SP:SPX   标准普尔500指数
There had been several models strongly pointing to a win of Donald Trump, as I had shared already 9 days ago:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/VIX/6DcLHrrF-PRESIDENTIAL-ELECTION-TRUMP-TO-WIN-SHORT-SPX-LONG-VIX/#tc489361

Currently we are now in a wide and wild trading range where anything can happen the next days.
评论: 10 months ago I shared a long-term chart with a priced in risk scenario of a likely win of Donald Trump. I wrote:

"The trend trajectory for the DOW Industrial index is starting to get very bearish in the year 2017 at the latest. A time when Donald Trump might have become the next US president, which would strongly influence the world history. "

The link to my comment about Trump, which I posted 9 days on Tradingview didn't work. Maybe this time as short URL: http://bit.ly/2ffFquC


Summary: Forget polls. The best two models forecasting the election outcome - which yet again showed how reliable they are - were build by two different professors:

Helmut Norpoth
"His model successfully predicted all but one presidential election result for the past 100 years"
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-will-he-win-us-presidential-election-2016-hillary-clinton-a7380621.html

Allan Lichtman
"His system has correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in every U.S. presidential election since 1984"
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/28/professor-whos-predicted-30-years-of-presidential-elections-correctly-is-doubling-down-on-a-trump-win/
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