Elliott Wave: Week of 3/5/18 - Ya gotta have a plan !

SP:SPX   标准普尔500指数
Crunch time is near for the higher degree wave started in November 2016 as part of the yet higher degree wave started in March 2009. However, that is a worry for later in 2018 and I've done preliminary estimates based on near term outcome(s). The current movements will be very telling for what to expect.

Interesting activity from February carried into March. Last week's peak on Tuesday to the low on Friday measured a decline of 5%. Think about that in context of 2017's market after already experiencing a drop of > 10% in February. If you're calling for a wave 5 move up you'd think a little further examination would be needed. Me too, and a plan is in place.

My overall EWT view remains as primary guide and my earlier assessments have not changed about wave 5. I've now looked further at waves from other historic periods for comparison, measured a few Harmonic patterns (both bullish and bearish ), and calculated various levels to observe. In short, my expectation remains SPX will hold above the 200d sma level. Next lower support is the February bottom at 2533. Below that would necessitate re-evaluation of wave 5. I don't expect that re-evaluation to be necessary, but in the plan.

The drop from 2789.15 on 2/27/18 doesn't seem quite complete, despite Friday's bounce off the 2647.32 low. Choppiness with a little more upside follow through, then another drop lower, would not be unexpected. Support levels are noted above. Any upward movement beyond 2789.15 would signal a move higher, but may not happen until the suggested choppiness resolves.
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