$SPX Daily, 03/21/2014

2014年3月23日

SPX up 25pts on the week and 7pts on the month. All the moving averages are in the right order and, with the exception of Wilder's ADX, all oscillators are rising.

SPX has met resistance right around 1884. The first time it went up there on 3/7, it did so with 2.2 billion shares and then closed 6pts off that intra-day high. This past Friday, SPX pushed up to 1883.97 and then closed almost 17pts off that high. Until proven otherwise, I'm going to attribute this large price swing to Op/Ex and if this assumption is correct then SPX should make another run for 1884 early this coming week and then close above that level. So this is going to be the key level to watch as there is no resistance above that level. Some are looking at the current situation as a double top and I just wonder why now? Perhaps this will prove to be the case but to be confirmed SPX would have to roll over and close decisively below 1839. While I don't think that is going to happen, my expectations for a move lower last week to the 1810 area proved wrong and so my expectations for higher highs from here could also be proven wrong.

The monkey wrench in the works for higher highs continues to be a falling Summation Index. A look back at history shows that when the Summation Index rises above 1000 and begins to roll over, you are likely to get some kind of correction but not always as sometimes the market just ignores these signs of underlying weakness and eventually the Summation Index bottoms and reverses. However, until the Summation Index does bottom and reverse there is the potential for some kind of correction. Some of these corrections signaled by the Summation Index have been relatively minor while others have lasted weeks and months so the Summation Index needs to be monitored from now until if reverses.

The QQQ's have been the driving force behind this rally and they got hammered on Friday for reasons I mentioned in my post about IBB. The RSI on the 60min chart of IBB dropped to 28 on Friday and so is extremely oversold in that time frame and as a result IBB should bounce on Monday, or famous last words. The RSI in the 60min chart of QQQ only dropped to 35 on Friday and so is not as oversold as IBB but if IBB bounces and if SYMC doesn't drop another 13%, then the Q's should also bounce and if the Q's do bounce then the rest of the market will follow along. So keep an eye on these three early Monday morning for clues as to which way the market is likely to head on Monday as well as the rest of the week.

Be careful and GL