The US Equity market has been visibly gearing for a correction since mid Jan this year (please see related comments below).
A 10% fall in one week is a good start; We are now half way to a new, bear paradigm.
Yesterday was technically as bad, if not worse, than Monday:
- The S&P 500 was in a downtrend all day;
- It fell on greater volume than average (2x);
- The downtrend accelerated in the last hour, on increasing volume;
- The index closed at the day low and LOWER than the Monday close;
- Most technical indicators have now turned negative on most time frames;
- Next support levels I am watching --> 2,560 / 2,550 / 2,511 / 2,400 / 2,336 / 2,225 / 2,175
What would it take to claim back the up-trend?
- A turn in technical indicators;
- A rebound in significant volume;
- A sustainability in the rebound and in the volume;
- A progressive close above any of the previous opens;
- An upward catalyst (earnings, interest rates, policy, etc.)
- Most of the above would take time to work themselves out.
Please see previous post "SPX: Flashing cautionary signals (again)." for suggested action in the current downtrend.
Please be on the lookout for new tactical ideas in a market which promises to be technical, exciting and fun!
Motto until further notice: Patience, prudence, do not fight the trend.
A 10% fall in one week is a good start; We are now half way to a new, bear paradigm.
Yesterday was technically as bad, if not worse, than Monday:
- The S&P 500 was in a downtrend all day;
- It fell on greater volume than average (2x);
- The downtrend accelerated in the last hour, on increasing volume;
- The index closed at the day low and LOWER than the Monday close;
- Most technical indicators have now turned negative on most time frames;
- Next support levels I am watching --> 2,560 / 2,550 / 2,511 / 2,400 / 2,336 / 2,225 / 2,175
What would it take to claim back the up-trend?
- A turn in technical indicators;
- A rebound in significant volume;
- A sustainability in the rebound and in the volume;
- A progressive close above any of the previous opens;
- An upward catalyst (earnings, interest rates, policy, etc.)
- Most of the above would take time to work themselves out.
Please see previous post "SPX: Flashing cautionary signals (again)." for suggested action in the current downtrend.
Please be on the lookout for new tactical ideas in a market which promises to be technical, exciting and fun!
Motto until further notice: Patience, prudence, do not fight the trend.
评论:
Great rebound yesterday, as a follow-through from the day before. We are yet to see volumes pickup on the upside, however. I would also like to see a close above 2,685 and then 2,727 for confirmation. Meanwhile, we will have to face the wall of inflation worry scheduled WED/THU. The market seems to be already pulling back a little.
