ChartArt
做空

S&P 500: What if history DOES repeat again in 2017?

SP:SPX   标准普尔500指数
317 2 7
What if we get a crash similar to the year "1987" or "1957" or "1937" in the year "2017" ?

Short entry: 2565
Stop loss: 2580
1. Target: 2530
2. Target: 2500

Risk to stop loss: 15 points
Reward to target 1: 35 points
Reward to target 2: 65 points

FYI: What Black Monday, the Worst One-Day Stock Plunge in History, Would Look Like Today
http://time.com/money/4988462/black-monday-anniversary-stock-market/
交易开始: The S&P 500 opened at 2566.5 and started to decline below 2560 points.
交易结束:到达止损: The market dropped as expected on Wednesday, but only down to 2544 - not reaching my first short target at 2530.

I closed my short manually at 2564 at break even, but I didn't update the idea thinking there is still a chance for a second decline before the recommended stop loss gets reached. I was wrong. On Friday there was a super strong short squeeze taking the S&P 500 beyond 2580 to a new all-time high.
交易开始: The S&P 500 opened Monday at 2577.75 below the Friday close and started to decline twice below 2570 points.

New short opened at 2570.
评论: The stop loss for the new short from 2570 is above the last all-time high at 2585.

Short
1. Target 2520
2. Target: 2470

Risk to SL at 2085: 15 points
Reward (1. Target): 50 points
Reward (2. Target): 100 points
交易结束:到达止损: S&P 500 made a new all-time high on Wednesday, stop loss at 2585 was reached.

I tried it twice with a short, because the market has been up several weeks in a row and my forecast for this week was a decline, therefore I had stayed with my plan.

P.S. Also see my older bullish idea from October 19:

交易开始: Bearish price action increased after many details of the tax plan were released on Thursday November 2 and it was also widely reported that Trump would nominate Powell to be the next Fed chairman.

I went short for a third and last time in this price region.

Short entry: 2577
1. Target 2527
2. Target: 2477

Risk to SL at 2092: 15 points
Reward (1. Target): 50 points
Reward (2. Target): 100 points
交易结束:到达止损: The good news is that some of my leading indicators showed my that the S&P 500 could advance again going back to last week. The bad news is that all of my lagging indicators who had just crossed bearish for the first time in weeks were all wrong. They have been right many times this year so far, which is the reason why I had no issue in trusting their bearish outlook and open a short for the third time.

My idea was that in the worst case against my short, maybe the S&P 500 goes a little higher again to 2587 before a larger decline starts and in an extreme case the index goes higher to around 2590 and then the S&P 500 goes strongly lower. Instead the market took out the stop loss at 2592 in a quick easy move and climbed to 2593.38 points, which was the weirdest price advance against most of my indicators which I have seen this year, second after the strange very fast climb rally which began in the middle of May.

If history repeats once again (just as the last time when my stop loss was taken out) on Tuesday or Wednesday the S&P 500 could trade lower. I'm going to use any future market decline now to find a good long entry as the bulls repeatedly fully ignore any risk and old market cycles - where I based most of my indicators on - remain totally broken.
评论: My hunch was correct:

The S&P 500 dropped on Tuesday from a high at 2597.02 down to 2584.35

Quote from Nov 7: "If history repeats once again (just as the last time when my stop loss was taken out) on Tuesday or Wednesday the S&P 500 could trade lower."

My S&P 500 outlook has after this decline changed to neutral for Wednesday.
评论: In hindsight it looks like the last move higher of the S&P 500 to the all-time high of 2597.02 on November 7, 2017 was not based upon price action, but time-based driven by the election day anniversary of Trump. Trump's election night rally was on Wednesday, Nov. 9, 2016.

Starting on Thursday, November 9, 2017 - past the one year election day anniversary - the S&P 500 suddenly started to decline sharply lower down to a low that day of 2566.47

In hindsight it seems that the weakness I had seen on my indicators was real, but delayed by the market trading strongly upwards until this election day anniversary. Only after this time based target was met by the market the price then followed to make a trend change. The S&P 500 closed the week lower than it had opened, for the first time since September.
you've been brave to short that beast.
回复
nice :)
回复
ZH 简体中文
EN English
EN English (UK)
EN English (IN)
DE Deutsch
FR Français
ES Español
IT Italiano
PL Polski
SV Svenska
TR Türkçe
RU Русский
PT Português
ID Bahasa Indonesia
MS Bahasa Melayu
TH ภาษาไทย
VI Tiếng Việt
JA 日本語
KO 한국어
ZH 繁體中文
AR العربية
HE עברית
首页 股票筛选器 外汇筛选器 加密货币筛选器 财经日历 如何运作 图表功能 网站规则 版主 网站 & 经纪商解决方案 插件 图表库 功能请求 博客 & 新闻 常见问题 帮助 & 维基 Twitter
个人资料 个人资料设置 账号和账单 我的支持通知 联系支持 已发表观点 粉丝 正在关注 私人消息 聊天 退出