SPX: The bear market: It's just the beginning. 做空

S&P 500SP

描述

⋅ Jan 10, 2016 1:10 AM

We underwent the first week of 2016 with a tumble of stock market signal for a difficult year for traders and investors all over the world.

Many forecasters and economists talk about incoming BEAR MARKET.

I totally agree with them.

The BEAR is controlling the stage, and China is driving this pair.

Look at on the chart, the fitst time SMA100 cut SMA200 was in February, 2012, then I see SMA100 cut SMA200 again ( I show on the chart).

The first cut signaled for BULL market for 3 years.

This rally of stock market was contributed by 2 elements:

- Low interest rate .
- Quantitative Easing of FED, this liquidity mainly flowed into Equity market.

Unfortunately, those two elements were eliminated by FED, now there is no fuel for BULL market.

The second cut absolutely signals for BEAR market.

It's just the beginning.

I draw Fib retracement from the low of first cut to the high of second cut.

SPX tested 23.6% Fib retracement, I think it would retest this level next week.

At least I hope SPX would test 38.2% Fib retracement level in the medium term.

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elliott-wave-analysis

⋅ Jan 10, 2016 6:38 AM

kosai19

⋅ Jan 10, 2016 1:13 AM

Excellent chart! I completely agree. There is a chance though for a rally to new highs before the bear market begins... It might happen now or at new lows (likely your fib target). Typically markets that have rallied this long and in a straight line have so much momentum that they have a last rally that has no buyers in it.

QuantRaccoon

⋅ Jan 10, 2016 3:27 PM

OR that rally might have happened when be bounced from Aug 24 2015 to our previous highs in Oct - Dec 2015 before currently tumbling down again.