mikeoakster
做空

S&P 500 step by step

SP:SPX   标准普尔500指数
My last count is wrong as LD are 5-3-5-3-5, not 3-3-3-3-3, basic mistake of mine. So, posting my alternative count and projection.

By the way, here are the assumptions on which I've been basing my monthly and daily counts:

a) One should analyse the monthly S&P 500             chart with a log scale, due to the price magnitude involved.

b) The rise from October 2002 to October 2007 was corrective.

c) The decline from October 2007 to March 2009 was an ABC wave, therefore the sequence between September 2000 to March 2009 was not a flat, hence I see it as a C wave of a triangle, in this case an expanding triangle, as C got below A.

d) The rise since March 2009 (D wave) was weak as it was developed constantly near the trend line supporting the move, not near the top of its channel (as it is usual with 3rd waves).

e) The break of a trend line such as that (end of D wave) means a new trend has started (begin of E wave).

f) The triangle's D wave has finished with an ending diagonal which 5th wave ended with a truncation, so, since then, we have been seeing the development of an ABC wave which will have to end below C wave, meaning below 666,79...

I just hope there are mistakes in my assumptions, which would not surprise me...
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