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S&P 500: The Q1 2017 Earnings Season High-Risk Bull Trap

SP:SPX   标准普尔500指数
296 1 8
Bulls successfully defended the 50 DMA (50 Day Simple Moving Average ) price region on March 27 causing a very rare type of reversal of the "VIX" 'fear index' from bearish to bullish for US stocks during that day (see chart link at the end), followed by another strong move higher on Tuesday, March 28, confirming the low at 2322.25 from the day before as a bottom region.

Overall on the monthly chart the market is in a very large uptrend, which started to begin a consolidation in March 2017, but this pullback phase appears to be over earlier. That could cause a faster reversal from sideways chop to a new swing higher testing the recent all-time-highs during April to May 2017. Bears might be able to drag the "S&P 500" lower deeper again, but after the price action of the last two days the odds now favor the bulls again - as long as the price region around 2320 and the main support at 2300 points hold.

The following opinion article was published by Avi Gilburt on March 27 even before the "S&P 500" climbed higher from the lows. I know this because I read it back then:

"As the stock market sags, it might be time to turn bullish"
The rally isn’t over, and the next big push might be to 2,500 points on the "S&P 500" Index
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-stock-market-sags-it-might-be-time-to-turn-bullish-2017-03-27

Greed and speculation of a good first quarter earnings season are now dominating the market and any bad political news around Trump, Brexit and the French election appear to be dismissed. Therefore here is my long recommendation:

Long entry: 2325-2340
Stop loss: 2315
Target: 2390-2450

Risk: 10-25 points
Reward: 65-125 points


Finally here is the link about the very special "VIX" move on March 27:

Charlie Bilello, CMT:
"Volatility Index gaps up 14% and finishes down 3.6% today, one of the largest intraday reversals in history. "
https://stocktwits.com/charliebilello/message/78505161
More information about what happened with the VIX, also known as the fear index:

Biggest VIX Crash Since Election Saves Dow From Worst Losing Streak In 39 Years
"From record complacency to panic and back in just a few days... The last two days have seen the fastest reversal in VIX since the election."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-28/biggest-vix-crash-election-saves-dow-worst-losing-streak-39-years
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