Upward Correction Nearing Completion

FX:SPX500   美国标准普尔500指数
81 8
Following the all-time high of 2137.1 and subsequent drop to 1833.5, an upward correction that initially appeared to be forming as a contracting triangle has since broken out of its converging pattern and now has the appearance of a "Flat (3-3-5)"-type ABC correction. Within this correction, two primary rallies -- to 2021.4 and then to 2022 -- have hit resistance just flush with the level that represents 0.618 of the distance from 2137.1 to 1833.5 (the exact .618 point is 2021.1).

So far, the length of the wave labeled "c" is right at 0.786 of wave "a", and (if) terminating very close to the extreme of wave "a" would be typical of a "flat" correction. These rallies seem to be getting rejected when they reach the lower trendline of an upward trend channel that formed after the 2009 low.

Unless it becomes more complex, the correction looks like it could be complete, or nearly so, and at a turning point. I am still on the fence as to whether to consider this correction a 2nd wave or a 4th wave. The depth and exactitude of its retracement to the .618 level would imply the former, while the overall wave structure since 2137.1 makes me lean toward counting it as the latter. In either case, I think it is probable that the index will start making its way down to a target below 1833.5.
My take on the action since 2022. I see a downward impulsive wave, being corrected now by a 2nd wave the "b" wave of which appears to be a triangle implying an upward thrust targeting .618 of the impulsive wave. This could be the initial part of a wave 3 or wave 5 down
AynCzubas AynCzubas
The "c" wave thrust didn't quite make it to 0.618, settling near 0.5 retracement before collapsing below its origin.
AynCzubas AynCzubas
Next stop? 1.618 extension of the 1st wave from the end of 2nd wave would bring a typical 3rd wave to about 1969...
AynCzubas AynCzubas
AynCzubas AynCzubas
This is my best-guess count and near-term forecast right now, given the last day's developments...
look4edge AynCzubas
ew free diagonal view, pink trendline from top diamond tested, real break? lets see if 2031.4 goes...
nice, as usual, considerede same abc count, however, the inner structure of c seems not finished to me, not usre if w3 has been finished, 2022 behaving like magnet and not rejector to me, can switch above fast...
AynCzubas look4edge
You were right. Wave "c" wasn't quite finished. The sudden spike so far up to 2030 might be its final 5th wave. Otherwise, around 2057 might be another conceivable ending point, where "c" would equal "a".
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