Can the pullback extend into deeper correction, and how to play?
Weekly:
- Bullish Ichimoku, but price is still very far above weekly Kijun (26 weeks avg) -> stil overbought
- Heikin-Ashi signalledstart of possible pull back last week, this week we have a candle with a lower wick. haDelta is below zero line now.
- EWO ticks lower. MACD may deliver a cross down, which would be further indication of more consolidation/pull back.
The big question is, can this minor pull back extend into a deeper correction, and in that case what targets should we focus on?
I put on a theoretical rotated rectangle. If price closes below weekly Tenkan, I could immagine a chopy multi-week deterioration, similar to the one seen in Aug-Nov 2016. Please not that right now this is just an interesting idea to follow, not a firm projection to trade.
Anyway, on a weekly close below 2330, chance for further correction would increase to the following target zone:
2195 - 2215: Weekly Senkou B (forward), Weekly Kijun, Monthly Tenkan and steeper (1 year) bullish trendline). As you see there are many lines at this zone, should act as a good support.
2105: Ultimate key level as there we have Monthly Kijun Sen and the major bullish trendline since March/2009
Daily:
- Ichimoku is neutral: Price is still at/below Kijun, Tenkan is slightly below Kijun and we have minor Kumo shade ahead of price, Chikou Span hit past candles. Most important question short term is if Bulls can recapture Kijun Sen. If price can't get back above Kijun, bullish momentum will fade again and it will attack Kumo and 100wma around 2320. I have a feeling the second scenario will happen, because:
- MACD is still far from delivering a bullish cross up, and
- EWO is weak too
We may see some consolidation around Kijun Sen, but MACD seasonality and major time frames (weekly and even monthly) Heikin-Ashi signals suggest more weakness is ahead in next few months.
Strategy: In case of a Heikin-Ashi sell signal here at daily Kijun (supported by 4H confirmation) take 1 full risk unit short position, with regualar ATR stop. Leverage up position below 2315! Target 2190-2220.
- Bullish Ichimoku, but price is still very far above weekly Kijun (26 weeks avg) -> stil overbought
- Heikin-Ashi signalledstart of possible pull back last week, this week we have a candle with a lower wick. haDelta is below zero line now.
- EWO ticks lower. MACD may deliver a cross down, which would be further indication of more consolidation/pull back.
The big question is, can this minor pull back extend into a deeper correction, and in that case what targets should we focus on?
I put on a theoretical rotated rectangle. If price closes below weekly Tenkan, I could immagine a chopy multi-week deterioration, similar to the one seen in Aug-Nov 2016. Please not that right now this is just an interesting idea to follow, not a firm projection to trade.
Anyway, on a weekly close below 2330, chance for further correction would increase to the following target zone:
2195 - 2215: Weekly Senkou B (forward), Weekly Kijun, Monthly Tenkan and steeper (1 year) bullish trendline). As you see there are many lines at this zone, should act as a good support.
2105: Ultimate key level as there we have Monthly Kijun Sen and the major bullish trendline since March/2009
Daily:
- Ichimoku is neutral: Price is still at/below Kijun, Tenkan is slightly below Kijun and we have minor Kumo shade ahead of price, Chikou Span hit past candles. Most important question short term is if Bulls can recapture Kijun Sen. If price can't get back above Kijun, bullish momentum will fade again and it will attack Kumo and 100wma around 2320. I have a feeling the second scenario will happen, because:
- MACD is still far from delivering a bullish cross up, and
- EWO is weak too
We may see some consolidation around Kijun Sen, but MACD seasonality and major time frames (weekly and even monthly) Heikin-Ashi signals suggest more weakness is ahead in next few months.
Strategy: In case of a Heikin-Ashi sell signal here at daily Kijun (supported by 4H confirmation) take 1 full risk unit short position, with regualar ATR stop. Leverage up position below 2315! Target 2190-2220.
