Back in early December I pointed out that the S&P500 might revisit an important level of support at 194 where the market was when the VIX retracted 75% from it's biggest spike up in a long time. What I had found through research using TradingView in 2014 was that the S&P revisits this 75% level with nearly perfect regularity and it was an observation worth sharing with everyone.
After the last signal, the market did fall and the last correction almost made it down to 194, but it missed by 2% and only fell just under 198. The trigger for the retracement to support is a break of the highest 3-day range, which I had labeled with a blue line in the last chart. The stop on the trade is a break of a 3-day range, so the last trade was only break-even after the initial small loss from the first sell signal.
Look for the Orange Boxes - those are the highest 3-day ranges and a break of them is the sell signal. The market gapped up out of the lower 3-day box in orange and took back most of the profit.
I am all about finding "KEY LEVELS" in the markets so I can define if a market is in an uptrend or downtrend. The strength of the market is dubious to me, given the high levels of manipulation present by Central Banks globally, so I am trying to find simple, mathematical observations with very high reward versus risk.
Here's hoping we can see 194.31 on this leg down. The stop will be using the 3-day range and the target is 194.31 to cover.
Cheers.
Tim
Short from 207.70 (202.40 last)
评论
YaKa
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I am short and would love to keep until 1940 or even 1910 but i see this...
1990 is not going to be trivial to break...
Yes - Good job on the gaps. There are plenty more gaps on there too. It's been a very gappy market!
jangseohee
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Gaps are often the enemy of a trend
timwest
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If you plot the difference between the Average True Range and the Average Range, you will probably see an interesting pattern. We could have a gappy market here that is higher than normal.
1990 is not going to be trivial to break...