mandevillean
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Trend Change in the Hourly S&P 500 Chart to Up

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P500 ETF TRUST S&P 500 ETF USD DIS
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It turns out that there was to be no opportunity to short the S&P 500 (link below to my previous post). Instead, the S&P 500 continued its recovery from Friday's lows.

Indeed, in today's final hour of trading, the S&P 500 closed above a key resistance level on the hourly chart. America's benchmark stock index ended the day at 273.03 (based on SPY ), above the 272.36 resistance level defined by the high reached on Feb. 7. For good measure, the S&P 500 also closed above the 200 period moving average on the hourly chart. As such, we must conclude for now that the trend on the hourly time-frame has changed to up. The next target on the upside is around 280 based on SPY .

This means we'll be looking for opportunities to go long this market. Rather than chase this market, I'll wait for a pullback.

A word of warning: as with any breakout, one must be on the lookout for a potential failure. A failure of today's breakout would be signaled by a sharp drop in the first hour of trading tomorrow. We could then short on the close of that hourly bar (yesterday, I wrongly referred to this trade set-up as an anti, but it is actually a breakout failure).

I will be closely watching tomorrow's first hour of trading to make sure this breakout is for real.
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