People seemed to like my verge analysis. So, I decided to look at another one of those big spikers from December, TRX!
Please note, BTC is in an uncertain area at the moment which makes trading alts very risky.
I'll explain a little bit of the way I look at charts. In a broader scheme, I was taught to look at the market in 4 stages. These stages represent a cycle of the market. Stage 1 is the near the bottom, where neither buyers or sellers are winning. Stage 2, is when price starts to surge up and go on a BULL RUN. Stage 3 is when the bull run levels out and already hit it's peak. Stage 4 is the Bear market. When looking at the broader scheme of things, we would have known to get out of Tron COMPLETELY at around 900 to 1000 satoshi when it transitions from Stage 3 to Stage 4. As a trader, you never want to trade in stage 4. Most people try to play a game called "guess the bottom" This is risky. Most of the time I wait for things to level out, unless it's something I'm looking at from a long term perspective. For Tron, it looks like it's starting to level out and sit at what I would consider Stage 1. I believe this is the bottom because the Bollinger Bands are starting to curve closer. The MACD has a nice divergence and it has slightly crossed. The price is sitting around the 20 SMA, which it traded under for quite some time. 3 reasons to think the bottom is near. Now, stage 1 can last for a long time. I personally do not trade in stage 1 on things I don't really care for long term. I wait for a break through, or some indication that Stage 2 might start. For me, I may consider buying if it breaks above 640 satoshi and has a decent amount of volume come in or a break above the .236 Fib level. This would indicate that there's a chance stage 2 might be at play. It is very possible we are still in stage 4, which is why I like to wait. Over all, I expect sideways movement for now.
Remember, the bear market is not quite over just yet, even though things look good and it may very well be over. it's just too soon to say It's over at this very moment. This makes risk for trades a lot higher. Please remember that before buying any coin!
Please note, BTC is in an uncertain area at the moment which makes trading alts very risky.
I'll explain a little bit of the way I look at charts. In a broader scheme, I was taught to look at the market in 4 stages. These stages represent a cycle of the market. Stage 1 is the near the bottom, where neither buyers or sellers are winning. Stage 2, is when price starts to surge up and go on a BULL RUN. Stage 3 is when the bull run levels out and already hit it's peak. Stage 4 is the Bear market. When looking at the broader scheme of things, we would have known to get out of Tron COMPLETELY at around 900 to 1000 satoshi when it transitions from Stage 3 to Stage 4. As a trader, you never want to trade in stage 4. Most people try to play a game called "guess the bottom" This is risky. Most of the time I wait for things to level out, unless it's something I'm looking at from a long term perspective. For Tron, it looks like it's starting to level out and sit at what I would consider Stage 1. I believe this is the bottom because the Bollinger Bands are starting to curve closer. The MACD has a nice divergence and it has slightly crossed. The price is sitting around the 20 SMA, which it traded under for quite some time. 3 reasons to think the bottom is near. Now, stage 1 can last for a long time. I personally do not trade in stage 1 on things I don't really care for long term. I wait for a break through, or some indication that Stage 2 might start. For me, I may consider buying if it breaks above 640 satoshi and has a decent amount of volume come in or a break above the .236 Fib level. This would indicate that there's a chance stage 2 might be at play. It is very possible we are still in stage 4, which is why I like to wait. Over all, I expect sideways movement for now.
Remember, the bear market is not quite over just yet, even though things look good and it may very well be over. it's just too soon to say It's over at this very moment. This makes risk for trades a lot higher. Please remember that before buying any coin!
评论:
My prediction that TRX would move sideways was correct. TRX looks like it's in stage 1. I would think it'd have a hard time breaking the low of 350 statoshi. Adding anywhere from 350 to 650 satoshi looks like a good long term add if you were looking to add long in TRX. I'm personally not long in TRX, I'm looking for shorter term trades, which I don't see one yet with TRX. But please note this analysis is based off TRX/BTC. In terms of USD, it's uncertain whether bitcoin will continue going lower.
