Welcome friends and haters alike — to this spectacular analysis, brought to you by the often imitated, never duplicated, legendary wizard of the markets! Let's jump right in! Looking at the four hour chart for TRX/BTC, we can see that price action is pushing the Bollinger bands to the downside, and trying to reenter the downtrend channel. If you recall from my last post, I said "Yes, a breakout above the downtrend channel has occurred, but there is no follow through. Nothing is happening." When you see weak breakouts like that, they often end up failing. Looking at TRX/BTC, it's toying with the top trendline of the channel, and I'm starting to suspect that if we reenter the downtrend channel, we will get the volatility spike that we've been expecting. For those who may not have seen yesterday's post, or need a refresher, we were talking about the clear volatility squeeze that is occurring in TRX/BTC.
For those of you who don't know what a volatility squeeze is, it is "when volatility falls to low levels and the Bollinger Bands narrow. According to John Bollinger, periods of low volatility are often followed by periods of high volatility. Therefore, a volatility contraction or narrowing of the bands can foreshadow a significant advance or decline. Once the squeeze play is on, a subsequent band break signal is the start of a new move. A new advance starts with a squeeze and subsequent break above the upper band. A new decline starts with a squeeze and subsequent break below the lower band."
A break back into the downtrend channel, will signal a miserable failed breakout attempt, and smart money will probably rush for the exit, prompting a rapid decline. On the downside, there is slight support at 450, but a break below that would send TRX/BTC into a state of freefall, because of a lack of downside support. If the top of the channel is held, the moving averages just overhead, and the 78.6% retrace, should act as heavy resistance.
This has been your not-so-humble market wizard, droppin' knowledge like bombs in this place! Please follow, comment, like, and share on social media. Good luck trading everyone!
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
For what reasons do you claim there willfree fall when it is obvious the only trading done on Trx is by the market maker that is holding thousands of btc.
MagicPoopCannon
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@CryptoBlake, If you read the analysis, you’d probably know the answer to that question.
MagicPoopCannon
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@CryptoBlake, I’d like to know how it’s so obvious to you, and how you’ve calculated the percentage, of market maker trading activity in TRX/BTC. I guarantee that you can’t give me a legitimate explanation, which means that you’re just spewing baseless rhetoric.
Just remember when BTC has a big fall, all ALT follow it. BTC is about to down hard, so... Good Luck. Good Profit.
streamDr
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@lemosedmirf, I'm interested to see you still believe BTC has further and harder to fall? There seems to be a double (poss triple) bottom, plus some stronger hints (at last) of bullish signals, plus we seem very oversold right now? My gut feeling is... I actually agree with you, but my eyes are telling me a very different story! Are you planning on posting an update on your channel any time soon? Cheers. And, good luck all.
MovingWater
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@streamDr, hi, my new strategy says it is 100% sure that BTC will fall, and yes I will keep updating it.
I am not saying it is easy to see what will happen, my strategy is not on the chart, it is so more complex then what it is there.
Well, if predict BTC's direction was easy then everybody would get rich, but this is not reality; in this crypto trading world some win a lot and some lose a lot.
In addition, it is even harder when you post a prediction and offer your face to get hit, because in this market everything is possible. But there are many ways of looking the same graphic, and that's one thing i love about it.
I try to put my feeling away from this world, also my eyes are seeing something very different from yours, but this is a good thing, otherwise, if everybody had the same view, this world would not exist.