Brent has fallen out of its parallel and oculd be topping here.
It could also be formung a flag here before pushing higher still.
Looks bad now as this is written - raising stop to 63.28.
But a break back and hold above 63.45 will have the bears back on their heels and suggests that the break, when it comes, will be to the upside. Fascinating battle - to watch and then side with the winners, rather than to participate in. Let's see who wins, and jump in behind them.
So that didn't work, 15 pips lost. looking to go long again in the 63.57-63.51 range with a stop below 63.30. This pattern looks bullish, still, so far. Time...
So if it can break above 63.57 it will likely push higher to upper parallel and then will encounter problems again between there and the recent highs.
It's flipping about here because of he Dollar. It's so hard to know when the dollar will affect the Oil complexes, which is less sensitive to DXY than gold is right now. But yesterday and today it looks like DXY is pulling Brent in both directions. Having fallen out of th eparallels, Brent like gold, is wandering aimlessly, looking for it's next trend to plot and so far not finding one. This makes it difficult for anyone but day tarders looking for small 30 pip runs. Am stepping back from this whilst the next trend emerges for swing traders. Lost it for now. But will find it again soon...
Looking at it again it really does look like a top is forming prior to rolling over - if so it should do it from the upper parallel most likely and might spike into the highs at best ...this would mean that Oil starts to ignore DXY again which is perfectly feasible , as we already know. So am putting in a sell order at 63.77 with a stop 33 points higher, just above the highs. If struck it should come back down to the lows at 63.10 and try to hold. If it then breaks below here we have three stikes on the lower parallel of the flag likely, a little bounce and then failure. So 63.10 -63.0 is now the key to Brent's medium term trend, most likely, from here.
duly came off back to the first target at 63.10 for a small 65
pip win - but should have held it longer as it then went on to
test the lower parallel of the flag, bang on 62.17 support at
the same point in time, and has since rallied much more
strongly than anticipated last week, taking Brent right back
up to the old highs at 64.25 before falling away again. (My
bad here for getting way too involved with Alt/USD's last week
and ignoring this complex in the resulting maelstrom)
Anyway, Brent looks OK...Look to buy around current values
down to 63.00 with stops at 62.88 for small loss if wrong
from here. First upside target is the highs at 64.25-64.61
range - (can close out here if you want) but be ready to get
long again on a move above 64.65 for next stage of rally up to
the upper big parallel - close out here if struck and look to
short with stops 30 pips above the parallel on first touch.