sumastardon

BRENT CRUDE Turning over -

FX:UKOIL   原油差价合约(布伦特)
UK OIL             Brent Crude Update
Brent has fallen out of its parallel and oculd be topping here.
It could also be formung a flag here before pushing higher still.
Looks bad now as this is written - raising stop to 63.28.
评论: Treacherous choppy and horrible right now. So glad to not be holding right now, would feel twitchy. It's flipping around but the meat of the action is narrowing, and yet the width of the flag now contians the blue lines at top and bottom and so this is still the width of the battleground at extremes. It's still too early to call...it isn't strong whilst held back under near term resistance at 63.45..it just needs to get above here for the flag to look strong..2 strikes still...surprisingly strong underneath still, unless that lower parallel is struck again, when it will be likely only to bounce feebly if we see that happen, before falling away and can be shorted aggressively then with stops above the parallel it's just left behind.
But a break back and hold above 63.45 will have the bears back on their heels and suggests that the break, when it comes, will be to the upside. Fascinating battle - to watch and then side with the winners, rather than to participate in. Let's see who wins, and jump in behind them.
评论: Bear squeeze until the pips squeak. The flag forewarned us. Clever flag. Now let's see how it behaves at the top...obviously it looks a short from there. But if planning this don't look for too much downside. It is likely to whip back up, creating a pinbar and then try to break above the upper parallel. wee go long then, with stops under the parallel by 20 to 30 pips. Time will tell. As usual
评论: So now it's taken every bear out bar a few stops remaining a few pips higher it can come back and use 63.80 as support. That would be a sign of immense strength, obviously. The parallel upper parallel should also become support now... Lets see Time tells.
评论: This has been a fascinating battle that you should have at least been the right side of, if trading it - but that totally sucks that the stop was hit - too slow-witted to adjust the stop to cover the dynamic/moving nature of the lower parallel. That was a mistake maybe you vcan learn from...when you spot a flag it should be quite easy to find...two spikes down, the second one lower than the first, looks bearish to a novice (why 80% sadly lose) - draw a line and duplicate the exact angle/slant underneath it and then drag that higher...it should fit without fuss or bother, magically...if it does, as this one did, see above and charts higher up too to see, it's probably real (and not pareidolia, the TA's invisible enemy). And then when you spot them...you know in future: 2 STRIKES for HOT - doesn't look it at that moment, it looks the opposite. Novice! Hopefully not any more, though. Lesson over. Hope you learned something from it if newer to trading. Be lucky. And follow what the chart is telling you. Chart not heart. Done.
评论: Look how strong this looks now. It's a buy here at 63.81 with a stop 15 pips lower. If it fails it's a buy off the next blue line. This looks like it will rip to the highs by tomorrow, so long as 63.80 holds now. High potential reward. Low risk, Buy
评论: Brent Update
So that didn't work, 15 pips lost. looking to go long again in the 63.57-63.51 range with a stop below 63.30. This pattern looks bullish, still, so far. Time...
评论: Well the level at 63.57-63.53 still looks like the dividing line for the day here, (but maybe should have had the stop much closer than 63.30 , nearer to 63.50 in this instance, as it was the key really to the near term - so it was not brave enough/tight enough - have to review and understand mistakes, no?)
So if it can break above 63.57 it will likely push higher to upper parallel and then will encounter problems again between there and the recent highs.
It's flipping about here because of he Dollar. It's so hard to know when the dollar will affect the Oil complexes, which is less sensitive to DXY than gold is right now. But yesterday and today it looks like DXY is pulling Brent in both directions. Having fallen out of th eparallels, Brent like gold, is wandering aimlessly, looking for it's next trend to plot and so far not finding one. This makes it difficult for anyone but day tarders looking for small 30 pip runs. Am stepping back from this whilst the next trend emerges for swing traders. Lost it for now. But will find it again soon...
评论: DXY Forecasts Useful, sometimes, for Oil Traders - but the relation between Oiland DXY is like distant cousins. sometimes they see each other and hit it off and other times they ignore eachother... but right now they're seeing eachother

评论: Was saying about 5 minutes ago that was waiting for a trend to emerge...
Looking at it again it really does look like a top is forming prior to rolling over - if so it should do it from the upper parallel most likely and might spike into the highs at best ...this would mean that Oil starts to ignore DXY again which is perfectly feasible , as we already know. So am putting in a sell order at 63.77 with a stop 33 points higher, just above the highs. If struck it should come back down to the lows at 63.10 and try to hold. If it then breaks below here we have three stikes on the lower parallel of the flag likely, a little bounce and then failure. So 63.10 -63.0 is now the key to Brent's medium term trend, most likely, from here.
评论: Well the stop on the short from 63.77 never got hit and Brent
duly came off back to the first target at 63.10 for a small 65
pip win - but should have held it longer as it then went on to
test the lower parallel of the flag, bang on 62.17 support at
the same point in time, and has since rallied much more
strongly than anticipated last week, taking Brent right back
up to the old highs at 64.25 before falling away again. (My
bad here for getting way too involved with Alt/USD's last week
and ignoring this complex in the resulting maelstrom)
Anyway, Brent looks OK...Look to buy around current values
down to 63.00 with stops at 62.88 for small loss if wrong
from here. First upside target is the highs at 64.25-64.61
range - (can close out here if you want) but be ready to get
long again on a move above 64.65 for next stage of rally up to
the upper big parallel - close out here if struck and look to
short with stops 30 pips above the parallel on first touch.
thanks for the update
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