THE BEAR HAS BEGUN - VOLS UP, VOLU UP, RISKOFF UP = STOCKS DOWN
已更新
and there she goes.
The start of the bear run i believe has begun, vols vxd have spiked up 4% already, the market is down us30 and volume is on pace to be the highest in a month - all of which are bearish signs INCONJUNCTION with my previous article where we are seeing riskoff assets outperform today with us1! , xauusd and usdjpy. Rates also as a result got hammered with TYX and TNX selling off as demand/ liquidty floods in for the low risk govts.
All of which were bubbling along and were set off by an outstanding unemployment figure (4.7% vs 4.9%) which is likely to put tailwinds in the feds hiking plane since it is a key measure they target - especially when key fed members (Kaplan) has before insisted the economy is close, if not at, full employment (thus we need a hike). This emp report will likely spur on kaplan and the other hikers to push for an increase in june as furthering employment/ failure to apply the economic breaks (with a hike) could cause an overshoot on their 2% CPI target. futuresmag.com/2016/06/02/feds-kaplan-says-us-pretty-darn-close-fully-employed
as discussed in detail in my previous article i am short equities now for the next 4 weeks at least, i expect a 5-10% retracement citing CB and brexit event uncertainty and in general poor bull drivers as the cause of the bear.
The start of the bear run i believe has begun, vols vxd have spiked up 4% already, the market is down us30 and volume is on pace to be the highest in a month - all of which are bearish signs INCONJUNCTION with my previous article where we are seeing riskoff assets outperform today with us1! , xauusd and usdjpy. Rates also as a result got hammered with TYX and TNX selling off as demand/ liquidty floods in for the low risk govts.
All of which were bubbling along and were set off by an outstanding unemployment figure (4.7% vs 4.9%) which is likely to put tailwinds in the feds hiking plane since it is a key measure they target - especially when key fed members (Kaplan) has before insisted the economy is close, if not at, full employment (thus we need a hike). This emp report will likely spur on kaplan and the other hikers to push for an increase in june as furthering employment/ failure to apply the economic breaks (with a hike) could cause an overshoot on their 2% CPI target. futuresmag.com/2016/06/02/feds-kaplan-says-us-pretty-darn-close-fully-employed
as discussed in detail in my previous article i am short equities now for the next 4 weeks at least, i expect a 5-10% retracement citing CB and brexit event uncertainty and in general poor bull drivers as the cause of the bear.
注释
Also a 6m hike cycle will be preferential as it is a good arbritary interval - 6 month hike cycle could be a long term goal by the fed - June-Dec
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