Geofftv1

DOW - 4 Hour Updated:

US30 (FX:US30)  
FX:US30   US30
322 5 10
I have been asked to update my last DOW 4 hour chart which has changed again! EW charting is not an exact science and sometimes the pattern only becomes clear later in the cycle.
Here is my latest idea which has the DOW in a 5th wave which is taking the shape of an ending diagonal . Given the continuing strength of the DOW I have posted a wide target of around
21900 to 22000 as the 22000 level will be a tempting target for the bulls. This coming week should see this target area reached after which it will be a good time to go short.
Good Luck
评论: DOW futures today hit 21898 a=c!!
Will be interesting to see what happens when the market opens later today.
评论:
snapshot
评论: Dow has broken the upper trend line and target zone with still rising momentum BUT way oversold in most other indicators!
This may be a throwover before a drop? time will tell.
New target of 22130 set which is c = 1.618 a
Good Luck
Thanks for your update, and analysis on the 4 Hour Dow Chart. That is the time period I use as well, so it is greatly appreciated Geoff.


I keep a weekly bar chart on the Dow, with the 5 days CLOSING PRICES used for the Bar.

The Dow is rising at a Parabolic rate of ascent. It is a very powerful advance.


There is really no way of telling when, or from what level the advance will stop. It is very dangerous to think of even think of shorting.

I can tell you that trend line support on the Dow Weekly Closing Basis comes in at..... 21400 on Friday Aug 4.

435 points below where it closed on 7/28. Below that...there is thin air !


Apple, whose chart has been looking quite bearish which and is part of the Dow, releases earnings after the close on 8/1.

Perhaps a negative surprise on earnings is in the makings, and could act as a trigger to start the decline. We shall see.

When it does come, the laws of physics say the decline will be SHARP, QUICK and SUDDEN.


The Unwind



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Geofftv1 The_Unwind
@The_Unwind, thanks for the comment and your own analysis, I note that the S&P, NDX have already turned and not made new highs as the DOW has? I agree that once the DOW turns the drop will be quick and possibly deep.The a=c for this final a,B,C is 21898 right on the rising trendline. There may be a throwover spike to 22000.
Geoff.
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Geofftv1 The_Unwind
@The_Unwind, DOW smashed through my target zone in futures today! Where do you think DOW will finally get to in this wave?
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The_Unwind Geofftv1
@Geofftv1

Geoff, There is no way of telling where the ultimate target will be in the Dow.
The Dow is in one of the strongest parabolic UP moves I have ever seen !

In commodities trading, this move up would be called a "Blow Off Top"
The power, velocity, and relentlessness of the move up substantiates its authenticity.

Apple, which is part of the Dow has earnings coming out after the market close tonight at 430pm EDT.
That will Definitely effect the DOW in trading on 8/2. Apple's chart pattern has a bearish top pattern in place going into the earnings.

The_Unwind
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Geofftv1 The_Unwind
@The_Unwind, Thanks for the heads up on Apple, I subscribe to EWI and they have also commented on the magnitude of the DOW and the difficulty in predicting its top!
You are right, I will sit on the sidelines for a while!
Geoff
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