Dukascopy

USD/CAD rises amid disappointing fundamentals

FX:USDCAD   美元/加元
The USD/CAD             currency pair was stranded between the 100– and 200-hour SMAs during the first half of Wednesday, as traders were reluctant to push in any direction.

However, bears started to overwhelm the market mid-session as a result of which a medium-term channel, the 200-hour SMA and the monthly PP were breached circa 1.2750. Downside risks remained dominant until mid-Thursday when disappointing Canadian Retail Sales strengthened the Greenback.

Prior to this move, technical indicators were located near historic lows. Thus, the base scenario favours a possible surge. The rate faces a strong resistance of the 55-, 200– and 100-hour SMAs and the monthly PP circa 1.2760.

This may mark a point of reversal, thus allowing the US Dollar             to make a successful retracement from the channel.
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Following a disappointing Canadian data release mid-Thursday, the US Dollar strengthened 31-pips against the Loonie within one hour. This move pushed the rate above the weekly S1.

The pair has since remained between this line and the combined resistance of the monthly PP, 200– and 100-hour SMAs just below 1.2760. The rate failed to surpass this area mid-today and consequently fell back down to the 1.2710 mark.

It is likely that the Greenback re-tests this cluster later in this session or early on Monday. However, bulls should not gain enough strength to breach it.

The general price level might not change substantially during the following 24 hours, as the rate is expected remain between the weekly S1 and the aforementioned 1.2760 area.
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snapshot


After testing a significant resistance cluster formed by the monthly PP, the 100– and 200-hour SMAs circa 1.2750 mid-Friday, the bearish sentiment took the upper hand and guided the US Dollar lower.

The pair was fluctuating around the 55-hour SMA for the majority of session prior to reaching a two-week low of 1.2680 mid-Monday. Indicators flash mixed signals in this session.

Technical oscillators, however, are located either in the oversold area or near it, thus suggesting that a reversal might be due soon.

A possible point of reversal could be near 1.2680, as the weekly S1 at 1.2640 might prove to be a too distant target. In terms of resistance, the Greenback could maintain its fluctuations around the 55-hour SMA and thus remain located below the 100-hour SMA.
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snapshot


After testing the 1.2680 area on Monday, bulls prevailed and thus sent the US Dollar for a 85-pip surge up to 1.2768. This strong upside momentum did not allay there, as the pair resumed its previous direction after several hours and pushed up to the psychological 1.28 mark.

Technical indicators are located in the bullish area, thus pointing to more upside potential. However, it is likely that the aforementioned surge is followed by a period of decline or consolidation.

The rate might still push slightly higher; however, it should subsequently fall back down to the combined support of the 200-hour SMA and the weekly and monthly PPs in the 1.2750/35 area.
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snapshot


As apparent on the chart, the US Dollar has appreciated substantially against the Loonie during the past two trading sessions.

The minor period of consolidation early on Tuesday was followed by another surge that had not allayed even by mid-Wednesday London time. As a result, the rate had gained 162 pips during this time and had almost reached the upper boundary of the four-week ascending channel located circa 1.2870.

It is likely that the pair still pushes up to this mark during the following hours; however, the dominant direction until mid-Thursday should be downwards.

Possible points of delay could be the weekly R1 and the 55-hour SMA at 1.2803 and 1.2780, respectively. It is unlikely that the Greenback falls below the massive support cluster circa 1.2750.
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snapshot


The US Dollar has managed to maintain its strong position against the Loonie for the third consecutive session even despite signs of a possible reversal.

Although the upper boundary of the four-week channel provided significant resistance for several hours, the pair was able to gather the required momentum and surge up to the weekly R2 located at 1.29.

During the aforementioned surge, technical indicators have remained at unsustainably high positions; thus, bulls should eventually force the pair for a decline. This might even occur in this session, as a breakout is generally followed by a brief retracement.

Apart from the upper channel line, the nearest resistance is set by the 55-hour SMA circa 1.2840. A breach of the weekly R2 would send the pair for the weekly R3 near the 1.2960 mark.
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