Adding a 22 period CCI to the chart and a 11 period moving average of highs and lows we can see how oversold USDCAD is.
Right now, the next hurdle is the level at 1.30113, which if breached might lead to a repeat of the pattern we have to the left, where CCI also dipped into new momentum lows compared to the past month.
I added a replica of the previous decline to illustrate the similarities. This time the global picture is different and we might see an even sharper selloff but only if Crude oil reverses more meaningfully than the last time. If we don't get a move past 1.30113 very soon, I'd be tempted to look for longs, but not yet.
Verdict: Neutral, too late to short, too dangerous to go long.
Regards,
Ivan Labrie. Time at Mode FX
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Followed the path to the tick so far. Monitoring for now.