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Mt.BFX
Dec 10, 2016 3:38 PM

USDJPY Cup and Handle - 3 year view. 做多

U.S. DOLLAR / JAPANESE YENICE

描述

116-118 will be a lot of choppy stalling with potential downside of 110.
Lower break will send UJ to 105.5 but I doubt it happening if dollar strength is real. Current OIL and DXY have come to a decision point to find out which is the true strength, my money's on Dollar.

Break below 99 will invalidate this idea.
TP 1 - 125
TP 2 - 130
TP 3 - 135
TP 4 - 140




Things to consider:

Sovereign bond crisis.
Bond capital flight into shares and commodities.
China housing and debt crisis.
European debt crisis - Italian bond and banking crisis.
European Union uncertainty - Further boosting of DXY from decline is EUR and GBP strength.
Japan stimulus and requirement of weak exchange rate. Upward momentum more likely due to favorability of a deflationary export nation.

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评论

What a rather large handle.

评论

Target Reached, crazy times
评论
JoeChampion
Thank you, my thoughts are on the same direction!
Mt.BFX
@JoeChampion, Interesting to see how long it took to play out, 6-7 years along with all the geopolitical changes and covid creating the right atmosphere. I see DXY going higher but it will be interesting to see the development of all of Asia and how it will begin to effect the monetary policy of the US.
happyluckydog
thanks for your sharing.
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