We are at a juncture for all JPY pairs that will determine if JPY appreciates or not. As you are already aware, Karuda and his cronies are desperate for the Yen to devalue. However, markets have given Karuda and his cronies the one finger salute.
I’m focusing on USD/JPY because we now are at a point where the market needs to make a decision (for this pair) on where it see’s JPY moving to over the next 12 months.
We smashed through four (4) key levels that I predicted would have resulted in a minimum 500 pips down to 110.050 (price bounced of 110.97).
Since then, price has rallied back, and it looks like we are going to retreat to the range of 115.186 – 114.81.
(1) If price breaks the four (4) key levels (see chart), then we are going to the moon (+125) (2) If price rejects this level, then I’m confident price will retrace back to 110. However, If price falls (JPY appreciates), then Karuda and his cronies might intervene.
I feel more confident in buying USD/JPY if price breaks the four (4) key levels (see chart) then selling if it rejects the 115.186 – 114.81 range because of how the market may react to more QE by the BOJ (and others).
Price retraced exactly where I anticipated it to go to, however option two prevailed (see comments above) and I see no reason (for now) why price would break the four key levels above.
I agree with this analysis, however I think that it will only test the level and then go far down.. as I can see a head and shoulders pattern has completed on the daily. so the levels around 115 will act as a strong resistence and it will begin a new major downtrend.