There are 4 attempts that the price action tried to breakout from the 618 FIB level but without much success. The 4th one (July 2017) hit the upper channel line and collapsed to 107.48 from the high of 114.44. Wow, that is a nice 6% profit or 700 plus pips.
Now, pay attention the 5th attempt that it tries to break out from the 618 FIB level. 2 things to take note : 1) The price has breakout nicely from the upper channel, i.e. 112.73 level. 2) Weekly charts show the decrease in selling and buying has taken over (see the candles). It also shows a nice ABC pattern with the C pattern forming in process. It should hit 125.78 to align with the peak in June 2015. Of course, this is a tall order and may take many months to fulfil.
The yen has to be weaken further to benefit the exporters of Japan and this is in line with what Mr Abe wants as well. Take a look at Nikkei 225, it has recently break out the psychological high of 21,000 (50% FIB level on the monthly chart)and now sits at 22681.40. There is a positive co-relation between this index and USDJPY if you do a comparison. I expect some profit taking on Nikkei 225 in the short term which means USDJPY is likely to be sold off in the short term. Watch 112.95 to 113.12 and monitor if it will rebound from this price zone.
If it breaks 112.95 (support level or the cup and handle pattern), then it will goes further south towards 112.77 (50% FIB level).
It is a buy for USDJPY but not now, watch the price action on lower time frame and let it tells you what action to take. Patience pays.
Now, pay attention the 5th attempt that it tries to break out from the 618 FIB level. 2 things to take note : 1) The price has breakout nicely from the upper channel, i.e. 112.73 level. 2) Weekly charts show the decrease in selling and buying has taken over (see the candles). It also shows a nice ABC pattern with the C pattern forming in process. It should hit 125.78 to align with the peak in June 2015. Of course, this is a tall order and may take many months to fulfil.
The yen has to be weaken further to benefit the exporters of Japan and this is in line with what Mr Abe wants as well. Take a look at Nikkei 225, it has recently break out the psychological high of 21,000 (50% FIB level on the monthly chart)and now sits at 22681.40. There is a positive co-relation between this index and USDJPY if you do a comparison. I expect some profit taking on Nikkei 225 in the short term which means USDJPY is likely to be sold off in the short term. Watch 112.95 to 113.12 and monitor if it will rebound from this price zone.
If it breaks 112.95 (support level or the cup and handle pattern), then it will goes further south towards 112.77 (50% FIB level).
It is a buy for USDJPY but not now, watch the price action on lower time frame and let it tells you what action to take. Patience pays.
交易开始:
we bought small to test at 113.567, SL at 113.178. May the force be with us :)
交易结束：到达止损:
Our stop loss was triggered.
It did break the support of 112.95 and pierced through hard on the 50% FIB level and went down beyond 112.77, now sitting at 112.518.
It could potentially went further south to the 38.2% FIB level which is 111.878 before we see a pull back.
If you have not short, don't chase price unless you have a clear strategy. If you are waiting to buy like us, watch the price action.
It did break the support of 112.95 and pierced through hard on the 50% FIB level and went down beyond 112.77, now sitting at 112.518.
It could potentially went further south to the 38.2% FIB level which is 111.878 before we see a pull back.
If you have not short, don't chase price unless you have a clear strategy. If you are waiting to buy like us, watch the price action.
评论:
We attempt again this time at 112.256 and currently make a small profit, SL at 112.449.
评论:
we are out the 2nd time. sorry folks if you had followed , hope the loss is manageable. Always use SL and manage your position.