A great long term opportunity here trading the wave 2 according to previous educational post "how to look for setups using EW" (see related ideas)
Looking at weekly chart we see price finished a long term zigzag near all-time highs.
We see also a clear five wave impulse finished (wave 5 circled blue)
Here on D1 chart price already finished wave 1 (green in parenthesis) and made a deep retracement for wave 2(green).
An ideal setup for a short entry with low risk. SL above 14.000 would be enough, although technically SL should be at all-time highs.
If this count is correct price should reach the 1.61 fib expansion at least (target 2).
- SL above 14.000 (better above all-time highs) - first target: last lows - second target: 1.61 fib expansion - third target : 2.61 fib expansion (near 10.000)
Other reasons to short:
- convergence-divergence setup (can you spot it?) - AB=CD pattern visible on H4 chart (see below) - bearish shark visible on H4 chart (see below)
Best regards.
评论
IvanLabrie
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This one might be a terrific win mate.
I'm trying to fit all pairs in a balanced portfolio.
Will be complex, but have to filter the redundant ones.
Good luck!
FullTimeTrader
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You are right, this is the only USD related pair i will trade because the wave structure is clearer and the R/R ratio is great. Regards.
moorekapital
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Fundamental wise, what do you think would be the one valid reason for USD to selloff or for ZAR to perform against the green buck? Thanks for answering ;)
IvanLabrie
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I'd say dollar weakness, an emerging markets selloff/S&P500 selloff...hard to say.
@FullTimeTrader, and USDNOK or EURNOK?
Both look excellent as a short.
FullTimeTrader
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USDNOK looks great also but its the same trade (USD against a commodity currency). EURNOK is better, price made a pullback to the 0.61 fib and it seems a decline could start from here.Im short with small positions since the scenario with oil is no too clear.
IvanLabrie
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Yes, I'm taking usdnok as a pair trade against an oil short in fact.
EURNOK is a standalone short.
moorekapital
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I doubted this thing from de very start;)
IvanLabrie
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Too steep a retrace...but let's not jump on FullTimeTrader.
moorekapital
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Not jumping, per se. Im just comfirming my earlier opinion about this price chart of USDZAR. Technically, we were in some sort of ABC correction, and so I thought this bullishness wasn't yet done. And so, when the techs did not seem a short to me, I wanted to know, "What fundamentally was the motivation for USD to fall, i.e, ZAR to rally. No hard feelings, anyway. Just deepening my understanding. ;)
I'm trying to fit all pairs in a balanced portfolio.
Will be complex, but have to filter the redundant ones.
Good luck!