NeshamaTrading
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OIL spill on aisle 5!!! Bring a mop, this is going to get dirty!

TVC:USOIL   WTI 原油差价合约
This is a short that is not to be missed! This is a continuation of the long-term downtrend. also from a fundamental perspective, the US has been largely increasing its oil output and that will have a very negative bias on the markets.
交易结束:到达目标: :D
To add a side note I see possibility of a cup and handle formation based on 5 year time interval and we are just starting to form right side of the cup
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NeshamaTrading therancher
@therancher, Probability of a cup and handle playing out is less then 20%. There is no bullish signs on the weekly to monthly outlooks, also the long-term COT has not changed.
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Compelling to say the least, but looks like your calling for a correction that would likely throw the world into a nosedive to the tune of -40% across all major indices. I think the idea has merit but oil needs to reach +-$73 for a serious correction in oil to occur. If it doesn't then its a continuation in a tight channel. Even a trendline from the peak in 2008 would suggest these numbers. Also, the first pennant has classic touch and go movement within triangle bounds, the second triangle does not exhibit that movement. haven't verified, but bearish Gartley is out as well in the 2nd pennant. HOWEVER if you look big picture it looks more like a descending triangle, but as stated before would require a solid move well into 70's and possibly mid 80's. I believe short term ascending triangle that will test 70's or even 80's.
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NeshamaTrading therancher
@therancher,-40% across all major indices is necessary for this to play out. The target comes back from the trendline of the initial bull run dating back to 2000 also there is a neckline of the previous range. Looking at the COT report you can see a change in sentiment. Fund managers have added to short positions and closed off longs, producers as well have been changing their outlook on the oil price. The oil output will rise significantly over the course of the year, just watch it. The oversupply will send oil plummeting to $50, most likely lower. We are still in a bear market. That has not changed unless it had to break $72.00 it's bearish all the way.

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NeshamaTrading therancher
@therancher, see.
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