USOIL has given us further clues with the recent developments. After the futures expiration, we had a big drop, but bulls supported the price before hitting levels that would put the rally in danger in the short term. We now have an active uptrend in the daily, and the end of a short term daily downtrend today, which indicates to me that we will see immediate upside in oil. If you for some reason aren't long, you can definitely join longs here, or on slight dips, and aim for the targets on chart, at least. This might end fulfilling a monthly uptrend signal, which could propel oil to the upper 60s, to even $100+-5 as an extreme target. Check out my previous publications, I have been moderately on point, capturing the extremes of the range, and I think now we might be able to catch the next trending leg, let's wait and see.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
交易手动结束
⋅
I'm out for now, but hold positions in energy for the long term. -in profit now-
评论
⋅
I reentered at 45.92, stop was only 35 cents...
USOIL can hit 53.28 by October or a bit sooner After that, it might confirm a longer term uptrend to $60-100.
评论
⋅
评论
⋅
After testing the top supply level we retraced to support, good spot to buy risking $3 down here.
We did hit my first target zone during October, now even broke out, expect a sharp rally to $60-65 next.
评论
⋅
Our buys and subsequent follow up trades are paying off, specially the Oct 3rd buy at support.
交易手动结束
⋅
First target hit, this could retrace here...I still have long term exposure to oil via equities, so I'll close my futures long and flip short to hedge said exposure.
评论
⋅
USOIL very close to target #1, considering sentiment, I am cautious here, we could short it against our equity holdings if needed
Question: If the 30yr “bond bull” is really over and money is truly rotating out of UST do you expect oil and other commodities to generally rise with all other asset classes? More difficult to short oil vs other commodities in this macro situation or easier?
Or is the bond bull even over? Seems crowded on that side of the trade.
IvanLabrie
⋅
@Ramesees, certainly a bubble when it comes to govt debt. I don't know if the bull's dead, it may kick a few times still. Probably a choppy and slow decline as rates rise over time. Right now it looks like it could recover.
Sentiment got a bit one sided on oil, maybe we get some kind of correction for a while in it. I would watch for stocks to follow it, in the event of a drop. I'm holding some energy positions, I would add to hedges and sell some of them if we get a signal from equities. Overall, I see many stocks that offer good value and growth prospects, which doesn't avoid S&P500 to take a hit following oil soon.
KLYP_Investment
⋅
it seems to be huge, but i'm afraid of becoming expensive oil for our gasoline car....
IvanLabrie
⋅
@tlzkrh1029, hedge your energy costs owning shares of PBR or OXY :p
Incarnation
⋅
Check your PM
Mustapha87
⋅
cant see whats going on here.
IvanLabrie
⋅
@Mustapha87, today's move is atypical for sure. I'm not aware of news that might have caused it. I was on the go at the time, I'll do some research on it.
If price rebounds, it is in good shape to rally, if it stays under 47.54, the setup can fail in the short term.
Mustapha87
⋅
@IvanLabrie, I was long, but this is what I'm seeing. Failure to make higher highs, I think it'll take one last dip before it goes back up. Some reasons for that is because commodities have had a pretty strong rally alongside oil, USD has gone down quite a bit, this is a good time for a reversal.
IvanLabrie
⋅
@Mustapha87, not really, a reversal here makes little to no sense to me...this is volatility, during a consolidation, but likely going higher. The thing is, some event today caused traders to sell, or stops got hit and pushed prices down a bit more.
Mustapha87
⋅
@IvanLabrie, It certainly is volatile, and who says the markets need to make sense. Another strong indicator for me is USDCAD. CAD looks like its going to get wearker after its strong rally, and this tells me oil will be the catalyst for this to occur. Only time will tell.
Question: If the 30yr “bond bull” is really over and money is truly rotating out of UST do you expect oil and other commodities to generally rise with all other asset classes? More difficult to short oil vs other commodities in this macro situation or easier?
Or is the bond bull even over? Seems crowded on that side of the trade.