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I think we see continued operations in the middle east, and eventually oil well strikes taking a lot offline and restricting supply, thus sending price action higher. Oil and other commodities, to me, are pointless to play via technical analysis because it's a much bigger than price action itself.
Hey STrader, actually you'll see the same areas of resistance/support repeated - for years, in oil. Fundamentals absolutely help guide potential long term trends but analysis helps us identify areas of accumulation/distribution so that we can play the markups/markdowns as those ranged areas break. You'll see ranges present 2004 and 2009 that are now being repeated at our current price level. My opinion, we will see new lows in the coming months and oils bottoming process will take a couple of years to complete. Like 2009, there will be quick swings (like we witnessed over the past 3 weeks). I really don't think that any of us are qualified or able to determine what oil's price should be based on fundamentals but am curious as to why you believe oil prices will rise? Oil is oversupplied, world economies are falling apart, stirkes will be short-lived, all oil pumping countries need cash flow regardless of the price of oil.