Crude Oil Chart 2: Daily Log. Bullish scenario

FX:USOIL   原油差价合约(WTI)
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Also see the weekly chart 1 from today.
I wanted to mention some observations other expert traders have made about the RSI . Most folks just look for bearish and bullish divergences or overbought and oversold. Often I find positive and negative reversals useful as well. But there are more clues in the RSI that to be frank I would not have noticed if I had not read about it. On these two charts from today I changed the RSI overbought and oversold values to 75 and 25. (Usually they are 70 and 30). This idea mainly applies to the longer term charts (daily, weekly. Not sure it would help for intraday). The idea is when when for example you are in a bearish market and the a next upswing takes the RSI to extremes (depends on the chart but in this case to well above 75) in addition to saying the market is short term overbought it make be signalling that the winds have changed and a new longer term bull move is ahead. Another way of stating it is that the RSI 14 tends to stay in a different range during a bull market and in a lower range when in a bear market.
For example notice that August of 2014 the RSI goes to <25 (first yellow oval) It never goes above 75 form that point all the way to the bottom labeled 22. There was a bullish divergence after the 2nd yellow oval which lead to a good bounce but the high in the RSI was 69. At the most recent square in November of 2017 the RIS went much > 75 (to 78.5) Signalling a possible change from bear to bull. Now on the most recent drop the RSI stayed well above 25 plus there is a potential positive reversal. To me this suggests more up movement likely ahead.
Take a look at some other longer to stock charts and see if you see a pattern. Remember such clues are never always correct. Money management still extremely important.
Hope this is helpful. Feedback, suggestions, criticism, jokes always welcome. Have a great week ahead.
评论: would be a good time for a bounce up.
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