A quick buck or an empty tank.... Short-term Short ..

FX:USOIL   原油差价合约(WTI)
Sorry .. Saw an error... Try this one more time. We have added to our shorts. We shorted @ 47.07 This will be a short-term trade of less than 30 days.

Cycle 2016.825. Look it up.

Be safe.. Bug swings coming.

交易开始: Consider this... Oil is very reactive to traditional trend and support levels.. It may punch through, stall or reverse at these points, but it generally reacts. I believe this is because so many machines trade it, and of course the margin players. We all see the same data and both human and machine react as we hit key levels.

Now take a look at oil... Let's say we want, need, or wish it was at $50. In order for oil to hit $50 again, it will need to hit & react & climb through the 1yr, 2yr, and 3yr Averages!! It will also need to punch through all but a few trading channels... ranging from months to weeks. Each one of these key resistance levels will provoke a reaction by traders, machine or human.

Can we see $50 again soon.. Absolutely. So many people, need or want it there. And if it does break all these trends & averages, it is likely to skyrocket. But.. But based on the fact that oil seldom moves through these easily, and tends to bounce off the established ones... And, And..we are still at record world inventories.. And World GDP growth.. And and...

We see it more likely that oil will not break all these trends... So we remain short ridding the trends. Yesterday's short is already in the money and we like that level even more today. Be safe.. Expect big swings as we get closer to end of month.

交易开始: Well this short may play-out today.. 44.33 looks to be the rim of the only up channel. But it could ride if we fall out of the channel. Here is a nice look at history...
Brief History -3 yr
1. June High
2. Sept Break
3. Aug big short squeeze at low. (Last 2 yrs)
4. Return to trend.
5. 1st Quarter low

评论: Updated
交易开始: So here is the lastest update.. For now I'm just going to update this short since both are on the same data. We may close this short if it continues to hug the rim of the micro Chanel. We see little risk to our shorts but not sure there is a lot of real downside before OPEC disappoints on 27th. May take profits if we don't drop to 44.30 by noon. 44.30 will be our target for now...

Oil has not balanced and may not till 2017. We will average lower next few quarters, unless a real crises erupts... Until then .. Many false HOPEs.

Be safe..

交易结束:到达目标: We just covered these Short-term short from WTI @ $47.07.
We remain in our longterm Shorts! These were for a quick swing.. (1 week).
See storm report until 27th. These are going to be crazy two weeks.

Short @47.07 / Cover @ 44.02
About 21% in less than a week. With only one tax event/trade... :)

Be safe.. Big swings next few weeks. May do another short-term short later this week.

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