Cycle 2016.825. Look it up.
Be safe.. Bug swings coming.
Now take a look at oil... Let's say we want, need, or wish it was at $50. In order for oil to hit $50 again, it will need to hit & react & climb through the 1yr, 2yr, and 3yr Averages!! It will also need to punch through all but a few trading channels... ranging from months to weeks. Each one of these key resistance levels will provoke a reaction by traders, machine or human.
Can we see $50 again soon.. Absolutely. So many people, need or want it there. And if it does break all these trends & averages, it is likely to skyrocket. But.. But based on the fact that oil seldom moves through these easily, and tends to bounce off the established ones... And, And..we are still at record world inventories.. And World GDP growth.. And and...
We see it more likely that oil will not break all these trends... So we remain short ridding the trends. Yesterday's short is already in the money and we like that level even more today. Be safe.. Expect big swings as we get closer to end of month.
Brief History -3 yr
1. June High
2. Sept Break
3. Aug big short squeeze at low. (Last 2 yrs)
4. Return to trend.
5. 1st Quarter low
Oil has not balanced and may not till 2017. We will average lower next few quarters, unless a real crises erupts... Until then .. Many false HOPEs.
We remain in our longterm Shorts! These were for a quick swing.. (1 week).
See storm report until 27th. These are going to be crazy two weeks.
Short @47.07 / Cover @ 44.02
About 21% in less than a week. With only one tax event/trade... :)
Be safe.. Big swings next few weeks. May do another short-term short later this week.